The 77% threshold | Seth’s Weblog

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When the fuel automotive was first launched, it couldn’t compete with horses. In any case, we’d had hundreds of years to optimize our methods round horseback, and this new know-how was nonetheless nascent. Roads had been uncommon, fuel stations had been scarce and the automobiles themselves had been unreliable.

The identical factor occurred once more when electrical automobiles made a comeback 100 years later. At first, that they had restricted vary, restricted house, low acceleration and charging was a trouble.

When a brand new know-how arrives, it’s nearly at all times at a systemic drawback. If we wait till the brand new factor is best than the previous factor, we’re taking an enormous threat.

That’s as a result of we have now opponents who will spend the time to study the brand new tech, and extra importantly, construct methods round it. They may acquire clients you’ll have bother getting again. They’ve a head begin that may final a era.

Herbie Hancock began experimenting with digital devices a decade earlier than a lot of his friends. That enabled him to create not one however two of essentially the most profitable jazz singles of all time.

If the native landscaping contractor sneers at electrical weed whackers and leaf blowers as a result of they’re not fairly as cost-effective within the brief run, they’ll in all probability lose some clients, and gained’t develop what they should know when the know-how and methods catch up. And the brand new methods will catch up.

The identical goes for media corporations which can be defending a mannequin of high-priced content material that’s ad-supported, refusing to think about that it may not final. How for much longer will Vogue matter?

When there’s an iterative cycle of latest know-how, the methods can’t assist however enhance, and the tech is more likely to as nicely.

When a brand new tech or system is 50% as efficient because the previous one, it’s our job to study it and perceive it.

And when it hits 77%, we ought to think about creating a brand new division, a brand new product line or a brand new strategy that adopts it.

By the point it catches up, we’re both a part of it or we’re too late.


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