Any seasoned crypto veteran is aware of that when costs fall drastically and confidence goes right into a unfavourable demise spiral, your time to purchase is slowly approaching. Across the crypto house we’re beginning to see related traits in all verticals which lastly creates the suitable alternatives for long run investing. If you’re writing off crypto proper now you’re most likely going to lose out on some generational funding alternatives and chasing excessive valuations within the subsequent bull market.
One clear parallel that me and plenty of others are beginning to see is Solana because the underdog of this cycle. I’m nonetheless uninvested so loads of my writing goes to be me slowly forming a thesis and ya’ll can comply with my pondering as I dive deeper into it. Therefore, this most likely gained’t be my final article on it.
Here’s just a few tweets which have actually resonated with my pondering on this matter just lately.
If I used to be to summarise the primary takeaways from these three threads I’d say that they arrive all the way down to:
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Solana is hated by many as a result of it’s nonetheless related to Sam/FTX and can be eternally referred to as Sam-chain
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L2s will dominate the panorama for the foreseeable future and there’s no want for one more monolithic chain
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The community repeatedly goes down and the technical issues Solana faces can by no means be fastened
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My favorite L1/L2 would be the solely chain which apps will construct on and any non-EVM chain has no change of being profitable
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Solana solely has low float tokens meant to fleece retail and the VCs are low high quality
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Everyone within the ecosystem are scammers or opportunists that can depart as soon as there’s no simple cash left on the desk
All of those seem like legitimate factors on the floor however I don’t assume loads of them maintain up towards extra stable scrutiny. I wish to take the time to rigorously perceive every of those factors earlier than making any brash conclusions so I’ll depart it to a different put up.
However, I do know that I can now reframe my pondering course of as follows:
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Solana is at a $3.6B FDV, down from near $100B simply over a 12 months in the past
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There are some probably legitimate causes as to why you shouldn’t get entangled, nevertheless they don’t look like something probably game-wrecking
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Prove/disprove any of the criticisms to precisely gauge the dangers and assign tough metrics for a way actual/unreal the dangers may very well be
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Once you’ve bounded the dangers, you then make an analysis for a way precious you assume block house can be sooner or later
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Provided the market doesn’t have any potential up catalysts for the subsequent few months, ought to valuations slide one other 50%-75% you’ve got a as soon as in a lifetime shopping for alternative
In the bull market I couldn’t have interaction my psychological curiosity in direction of investing as a result of all the market was over-valued trash with horrible threat/reward ratios. However, that’s altering quickly and you need to be able to act when the time is correct.
