There are countries where people are forced to use a CBDC, and others, like Norway, where it is mandatory by law to accept cash.
Bitcoin is a line of defense against the evils of money printing, but also against the dark scenario of the disappearance of cash.
That is the grand plan: to replace cash with a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency). Central bankers do not shy away from this. They justify it by stating that the share of digital payments is gaining ground.
Sure, but at the same time, where are the ATMs? Banks closed six ATMs per day last year. There are only 44,000 left, whereas there were more than 50,000 just four years ago. Those replaced by “independent” ATMs charge absolutely prohibitive fees.
Closing bank ATMs allows card providers to make more money. In Europe, Visa and Mastercard take 0.30% of the amount of each transaction. This goes up to 4% in some countries. This is money that merchants do not receive compared to a cash transaction.
The end of cash would be extremely lucrative for Visa, Mastercard, Apple Pay, etc. So much so that the CBDC could be attractive if its transactions were free of charge. The price to pay would nevertheless be to reveal one’s purchase history to the State.
Goodbye privacy, with all the risks that entails, especially in case of war. In Ukraine, the credit cards of conscripts who refuse to go to the front are systematically blocked.
Norway is a society where payments are largely made without cash. Credit cards and smartphones are widely used. So much so that some points of sale have started to refuse cash…
Faced with this worrying trend, the Norwegian parliament amended the law to strengthen consumers’ right to pay in cash. The law came into force this Tuesday, October 1st.
Justice Minister Emilie Enger Meh recommends keeping cash on hand:
“The world around us is becoming increasingly unstable, with war, digital threats, and climate change. We must prepare for prolonged power outages, system failures, or cyberattacks that would disrupt digital payment methods.”
It is reassuring to see countries opposing the end of cash. That said, Norway is a wealthy country where disrupting payment methods is of little interest. Leaders of emerging countries are much more receptive to the promises of CBDCs.
Let us recall in this regard the words of Bo Li, an IMF board member:
“CBDC can allow government agencies and the private sector to program money for specific purposes, such as paying social benefits like food vouchers. The programmability of CBDC allows for precise targeting of who can use it and how. For example, this money could only be spent on food.”
Very wealthy countries like Norway probably have little to fear. Cash will undoubtedly remain a payment option.
However, many countries realize that removing cash would allow every transaction to be taxed and rationing to be easily implemented.
For example, a government could temporarily block the purchase of certain imported products to reduce the trade deficit. More painfully, it would then be possible to implement negative interest rates on savings.
That is why bitcoin is so successful in a country like Nigeria, where the central bank is trying to substitute its CBDC for cash. It is written in advance that the masses will be the losers if cash were to disappear.
Bitcoin is a bulwark against all these CBDC projects that are already beginning to falter. The Bank of Canada has just announced that it is “scaling down” its work on the issue while remaining on the lookout for an opportunity:
“Recognizing that there are currently no compelling arguments for creating a CBDC in Canada, the Bank is reducing its work on creating a central bank digital currency for individuals […]. The knowledge gained over the past few years will be valuable if, at some point, Canadians, through their elected representatives, decide they need a digital Canadian dollar.”
This is probably the Trump effect. The person who could soon return to the White House is indeed categorically opposed to CBDC.
Whatever happens around the world, bitcoin will remain the fallback solution par excellence. Its low transaction throughput does not allow it to compete with Mastercard, but it remains a fully functional and cheap if necessary uncensorable means of payment.