The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is about to print its newest financial coverage resolution!
Will hypothesis after which market response to the occasion lengthen AUD’s positive aspects towards NZD?
Before transferring on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out NZD/USD’s short-term downtrend forward of New Zealand’s PPI launch. Be certain to take a look at if it’s nonetheless a legitimate play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets within the final buying and selling periods:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
Rightmove: The UK housing market stalled, pushing up costs by simply $14 in February
German Bundesbank: the financial system might shrink barely this yr, inflation has handed its peak
NZ producer enter costs ease from 0.8% to 0.5% q/q in This autumn, the bottom since Q2 2022
Judo Bank Australia manufacturing PMI hit a two-month excessive of 48.9 in February
Australia’s Judo Bank providers enterprise exercise PMI improved from 48.6 to 49.2 however remained in contraction for a fifth straight month in February
RBA assembly minutes confirmed members thought-about elevating charges by 50bps in February
Japan’s manufacturing facility exercise was down from 48.9 to 47.4 in February, contracting at its quickest tempo in 2-1/2 years on weak world demand
Jibun Bank Japan providers PMI rose from 52.3 to 53.6, an eight-month excessive, in February as new orders accelerated and new companies elevated barely
Asia markets combined as traders digest non-public surveys on manufacturing facility exercise
France’s providers PMI rose to growth territory, up from 49.4 to 52.8 in February however the manufacturing PMI dipped from 50.5 to 47.9
Rising costs push Switzerland’s commerce surplus to its highest ranges since April 2022
UK public sector posts surprising price range surplus in January
Germany’s manufacturing PMI dipped from 47.3 to 46.5, providers PMI jumped from 50.7 to 51.3 in February
Rising demand, therapeutic provide chains, and backlog discount pushes Eurozone enterprise exercise to a nine-month excessive in February
Eurozone’s manufacturing and providers PMIs at 9:00 am GMT
U.Ok.’s manufacturing and providers PMIs at 9:30 am GMT
German ZEW financial sentiment at 10:00 am GMT
Eurozone ZEW financial sentiment at 10:00 am GMT
Canada’s month-to-month CPI at 1:30 pm GMT
Canada’s retail gross sales at 1:30 pm GMT
U.S. manufacturing and providers PMIs at 2:45 pm GMT
U.S. current dwelling gross sales at 3:00 pm GMT
NZ commerce steadiness at 9:45 pm GMT
RBNZ’s financial coverage resolution at 1:00 am GMT (Feb 22)
Use our new Currency Heat Map to rapidly see a visible overview of the foreign exchange market’s value motion! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: AUD/NZD
AUD/NZD 1-hour Forex Chart by TradingView
I don’t know when you’ve observed by AUD/NZD has been making increased highs and better lows since discovering assist on the 1.0900 psychological deal with.
The pair is now buying and selling close to 1.1040, which traces up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of final week’s upswing and February’s damaged resistance zone.
Are we taking a look at a break-and-retest state of affairs right here?
Just after U.S. session buying and selling the RBNZ will publish its first financial coverage resolution since November.
Word round is that the central financial institution will increase its rates of interest by 25bps after a 75bps fee hike in November.
With inflation undershooting RBNZ’s estimates and world inflation decelerating, the central financial institution may have extra room to take the metallic from the pedal.
A not-so-hawkish RBNZ assertion might despatched AUD/NZD again to its weekly highs. AUD/NZD may shoot as much as 1.1080 if not bust by way of the 1.1100 zone.
If RBNZ surprises with a 50bps fee hike although, if the assertion seems extra hawkish than markets predict, then AUD/NZD may retest earlier lows.
In case of a hawkish coverage resolution, I’ll be trying on the 1.1025 or 1.1000 inflection factors for potential assist zones.
Will AUD/NZD head in direction of the 100 and 200 SMAs this week? Or will the pair make new intraweek highs?
