This week, our analysts evaluate technical traits for the week forward for Micro NASDAQ 100 futures, the 30-year treasury bond futures, micro bitcoin futures and RBOB gasoline futures. They additionally increase on firm earnings and financial experiences for the approaching week.
Micro NASDAQ 100 Futures Daily Chart
The Micro NASDAQ 100 futures tried to check the 38% Fibonacci retracement degree (utilizing the December 2021 excessive and the October 2022 low as a downtrend) a second time final week and failed, ending the week buying and selling across the 200-day exponential transferring common. The RSI reveals bearish divergence: current highs within the RSI are reducing, whereas current highs in value present sideways motion. The MACD histogram signifies a development change to bearish because it dips beneath the zero line. Should this pullback in value proceed, assist at 12072 (the 23% Fib retracement) and on the 50-day EMA, at present at 11985. Targets on the upside (after breaking by 12990) may very well be 13730 (50% retracement degree) and the August excessive of 13933.
30-Year Treasury Bond Futures Daily Chart
The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond futures is reaching a important space of assist 124’12, which has already been examined in early January. The current cross beneath the 50-day exponential transferring common is bearish, with the final seven buying and selling days seeing decrease highs and decrease lows. Bearish divergence is seen within the RSI indicator – with decrease lows on the RSI the place value has but to make a comparable decrease low. The MACD reveals bearish occasions as properly, with the MACD, sign line and histogram all in unfavourable territory. Should the market rally, anticipate some resistance on the 50-day transferring common (at present at 128’07). Further bearish motion may goal 117’15, the low within the October.
Micro Bitcoin Futures Daily Chart
Micro Bitcoin futures proceed to rally with the cross above the 200-day exponential transferring common. The MACD is poised for a cross above its sign line, which might be a bullish indication. The RSI is troubling although – whereas bitcoin is making larger swing highs, the RSI is seeing decrease swing highs, which may point out a weakening bull development. A continuation of the bull development may expertise resistance at 27550 (the 23% Fibonacci retracement from the excessive in November 2021 to the low a 12 months later). If development swings to the draw back, search for assist on the 50-day EMA (at present at 20966).
RBOB Gasoline Future Daily Chart
Gasoline futures have been a 65-cent buying and selling vary since September, buying and selling between 2.25 and a pair of.90, with value at present midway between these borders at 2.57. While MACD appeared prepared to point a development change to bullish, the final two buying and selling days of final week stored the indicator bearish. RSI is respecting the value motion, trending downward to 43 (not fairly oversold but). An unconventional head and shoulders has appeared, so ought to a break of the neckline happen, the measured transfer (from the highest of the pinnacle to the neckline, utilized to the purpose on the neckline the place the draw back break happens) signifies a attainable goal of two.15. Expect resistance at 2.90 ought to the development flip bullish.
Economic Reports for the week of February 20th – February 24th
Thursday February 23rd is a vital financial report day as each jobless claims and GDP shall be launched at 8:30am ET. This is the second (revised estimate) launch for This autumn 2022 GDP, with the Advance quantity at 2.9%. Watch to see if this primary revision will increase or decreases, as a development might affect Fed coverage for setting the Fed Funds price. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) performs double obligation on Thursday morning, releasing each the Natural Gas report and the Petroleum Status report. Housing market-related experiences releasing this week embrace Existing Home Sales (Tuesday), MBA Mortgage Applications (Wednesday), and New Home Sales (Friday).
Speaking engagements by Federal Reserve presidents embrace NY Fed president John Williams (Wednesday), Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic (Thursday) and Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester. Note that this may increasingly not embrace all Federal Reserve appearances subsequent week, and that market volatility can enhance when these audio system touch upon the financial system and Fed coverage.
Additionally, Monday is a financial institution vacation within the United States; verify the exchanges for attainable shortened buying and selling hours.
*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention
|Monday, February twentieth||No experiences because of the Presidents Day Holiday|
|Tuesday, February twenty first||10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections @usda
|Wednesday, February twenty second||7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 AM ET: State Street Investor Confidence Index
2:00 PM ET: FOMC Minutes
5:30 PM ET: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speech
|Thursday, February twenty third||8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims***
8:30 AM ET: GDP***
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report*
10:50 AM ET: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic Speech
11:00 AM ET: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report***
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet
|Friday, February twenty fourth||8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays*
10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment
10:15 AM ET: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speech
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM ET: Cattle On Feed
3:00 PM ET: Cold Storage
Companies Reporting Earnings for the week of February 20th – February 24th
Retail corporations take heart stage this week, led by Walmart (in each the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices) on Tuesday morning. Baidu, eBay, Ali Baba and Wayfair reporting midweek signify e-commerce – watch these outcomes for perception into how shoppers are spending on retail objects.
Home Depot represents the opposite Dow Jones firm reporting this week, additionally on Tuesday morning—concentrate on potential volatility in Dow Jones futures each when the earnings experiences are launched and at common market open (9:30am ET). Commercial actual property is represented by CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield on Thursday. Canadian banks incomes season begins with CIBC on Friday earlier than market open.
BMO = Before Market Open
AMC = After Market Close
* signifies that this firm is within the S&P 500 Index
|Monday, February twentieth||No experiences because of the Presidents Day Holiday|
|Tuesday, February twenty first||Home Depot (HD): $3.25 EPS Estimate, $35.97B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Molson Coors Brewing Company. (TAP): $1.06 EPS Estimate, $2.67B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Walmart (WMT): $1.52 EPS Estimate, $159.08B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Caesar’s Entertainment (CZR): ($0.18) EPS Estimate, $2.82B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL): $1.37 EPS Estimate, $1.74B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
|Wednesday, February twenty second||Baidu, Inc. (BIDU): $1.61 EPS Estimate, $4.64B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
eBay, Inc. (EBAY): $1.06 EPS Estimate, $2.46B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): ($3.04) EPS Estimate, $3.05B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*
Rio Tinto plc (RIO): –.– EPS Estimate, $44.84B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
|Thursday, February twenty third||Ali Baba Group Holdings (BABA): $2.28 EPS Estimate, $35.48B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE): $1.19 EPS Estimate, $8.46B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): $4.66 EPS Estimate, $5.09B Revenue Estimate (BMO)*
Wayfair, Inc. (W): ($3.04) EPS Estimate, $3.05B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Carvana Co. (CVNA): $0.08 EPS Estimate, $11.03B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Cushman & Wakefield (CWK): $0.46 EPS Estimate, $2.44B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): $0.08 EPS Estimate, $11.03B Revenue Estimate (AMC)*
|Friday, February twenty fourth||Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM): $1.22 EPS Estimate, $16.73B Revenue Estimate (BMO)|
Be certain to verify again weekly and observe us on our social media accounts to obtain alerts of our Futures Outlooks week to week.
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