If I’d invested £1,000 in Moonpig shares 2 years in the past, right here’s what I’d have now!

Investors in Moonpig (LSE:MOON) shares have been squealing with delight after the net retailer of greeting playing cards went public on 2 February 2021. The inventory worth surged by 25% inside simply an hour of the market opening, from a float worth of £3.50 to £4.40.

Now, shareholders are doubtless grunting in disappointment as they take a look at Moonpig’s share worth crash over the past two years.

Pig in a poke

If I’d purchased £1,000 value of Moonpig inventory the day it went public, I’d have round 280 shares.

Today, these shares can be value a paltry £355, representing a capital lack of 64.5%.

Despite being worthwhile, with a free money movement of £45.2m in 2022, Moonpig has by no means paid out a dividend. That means I’d don’t have anything to indicate for my funding in apart from the massively depreciated shares.

Fortunately, I’ve by no means been a Moonpig shareholder. But given the corporate is buying and selling near its 52-week low, is at the moment worthwhile, and has incredible model recognition, ought to I purchase the dip?

Making a pig’s ear of it…

Moonpig had a troublesome 2022.

First, the shine got here off many on-line companies, together with Moonpig’s, when Covid shutdowns ended, permitting individuals to do extra procuring at High Street shops.

Then, within the second half of 2022, Royal Mail launched 18 days of strikes, making it tougher to ship last-minute greetings playing cards for particular events.

But what may the longer term maintain for Moonpig?

Going the total hog

To funnel gross sales to its on-line retailer, Moonpig has constructed an information infrastructure that pings 79m reminders every year to prospects about vital dates – akin to birthdays and anniversaries.

The reminders exit to individuals who have beforehand used Moonpig to ship one thing to a liked one on a particular date. In FY22, the corporate delivered 57m personalised playing cards, presents, and flower bouquets in 40m distinctive orders. Meanwhile, round 90% of income in that monetary yr got here from present customers.

Those figures counsel to me that Moonpig’s reminders have a formidable conversion charge.

Sizzling statistics

I like that Moonpig has amassed a gargantuan mailing checklist of shoppers, together with the dates on which they’re more likely to grow to be repeat consumers.

But what do the financials say? Below, I examine some key monetary ratios for Moonpig with these of Etsy and Card Factory.

While Moonpig and Etsy are each solely on-line retailers that specialize in personalised presents and playing cards, Card Factory is primarily a brick-and-mortar retailer that provides playing cards, presents, and social gathering provides by way of bodily shops.

Moonpig hogs the limelight in relation to any comparability with Etsy’s financials. But Card Factory has the final chuckle, with its shares priced rather more fairly than Moongpig’s. Surprisingly, Moonpig is extra leveraged than Card Factory, regardless of having no bodily shops.

Currently, Moonpig is the sixth-most shorted inventory by large cash managers on the London Stock Exchange, based on knowledge from the Financial Conduct Authority.

That suggests, for all the corporate’s discuss being a “technology platform at heart”, big-shot buyers suppose it’s all hogwash.

I wouldn’t purchase Moonpig shares proper now. I wouldn’t purchase Etsy or Card Factory, both. Given the cost-of-living disaster, I see bleak instances forward for retailers of non-essentials like greeting playing cards, flowers, and social gathering balloons.