All hope seems lost for a Bitcoin recovery this year. Is it really over?

Bitcoin is back in the danger zone, as prices fell to their lowest level since January on Thursday after selling pressure got worse across the crypto market.

Bitcoin’s price is currently at $63,300, down by over 16% for the week. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has lost about 13% and slipped into the $67,000 area. That is a long way from the high above $120,000 reached last October. From that peak, Bitcoin is now down more than 45%.

Traders bet Bitcoin can fall below $60,000 as six-figure odds keep shrinking

Traders on Kalshi now see the current stretch as a full “crypto winter,” pricing in more pain, not a clean recovery. The platform shows close to an 80% chance that Bitcoin falls below $60,000 in 2026. That would put the price under its February low, when Bitcoin dropped to $60,062.

The downside bets do not stop there. Kalshi traders also give Bitcoin a 52% chance of falling below $50,000 this year. The last time Bitcoin traded with a four at the front of its price was August 2024.

The excitement about Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 has faded. Kalshi traders think it only has a 27% chance of reaching that mark by 2026. Just in early May, the odds were nearly 50%, so there’s been a big shift in perception in less than a month.

On Polymarket, the traders there see only a 12% chance that Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high in 2026. The pressure is also coming from macro markets.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 4.45%. Traders now see more than a 50% chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates by the end of the year. Rate cuts are no longer priced into the outlook. The U.S. Dollar Index is still above 99.

That is a rough setup for risk assets, and Bitcoin has taken the hit harder than most. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $4.21 billion in outflows over three weeks. That is the biggest institutional redemption streak of 2026.

The big money guys are scaling back now, even before there’s any real price recovery. The nonfarm payrolls report on Friday will be super crucial. If the jobs numbers are strong, selling pressure may continue. If they come in weak, it could finally give the market a break.

On-chain data puts Bitcoin between $77,800 resistance and $53,900 support

Meanwhile on-chain, Bitcoin has fallen away from the True Market Mean at $77,800. That level tracks the average cost of coins that are actively changing hands. Traders often use it as a line between stronger and weaker market phases.

The current lower zone is right at the Realized Price of $53,900, which is the average cost for all the coins out there. Since Bitcoin’s at $63,000, it’s caught in the middle of these values. Because it hasn’t stayed above the True Market Mean, the bear-market setup is still on.

Things aren’t looking great for short-term holders either, as they’ve got a cost basis of around $76,400, which is also above that mean, and the last time this happened was back in January 2022.

Newer buyers are now at the primary valuation level, so time is testing their patience. Usually, we see this scenario towards the end of a bear market, where those with weaker positions or long-term holdings get exposed.

The options market is anxious too. One-month implied volatility is around 42%, and realized volatility sits at about 32%. So, the volatility risk premium is hitting its highest in three months.

While spot trading is challenging, option traders think things will pick up. As Bitcoin fell below critical support, implied volatility skyrocketed, indicating higher demand for safety through options.

Put options stay more expensive than calls across the board. With skew calculated by puts minus calls, the positive readings indicate that protection against a downturn still costs more. For one month, three months, and six months, this gap is around 13% to 14%.

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