Crypto analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) has published a new analysis on XRP, outlining two bearish scenarios for Q4. XRP currently trades around $1.56, sitting directly at the 50-week EMA. Ch
Crypto analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) has published a new analysis on XRP, outlining two bearish scenarios for Q4. XRP currently trades around $1.56, sitting directly at the 50-week EMA. ChartNerd sees this level as critical. The price action from here will determine which scenario unfolds.
Scenario 1 projects a rejection between $1.50 and $1.60, near the 50-week EMA, followed by a retrace into Q4. The price fails to reclaim the moving average and sells off from current levels.
Scenario 2 allows a short-term push into the $1.80 to $2 range, retesting what a key support floor from 2025. That retest becomes resistance. A deeper Q4 pullback follows from there.
Both scenarios end in a decline. The difference is how high XRP climbs before the move lower begins.
I expect one of these $XRP scenarios to unfold over the coming weeks
Scenario 1: A rejection around the 50 week EMA between $1.50/$1.60, followed by a retrace in Q4.
Scenario 2: A move into the $1.80/$2 pocket to retest the 2025 support floor, before a deeper Q4 pullback. pic.twitter.com/JGZJiIU38O
—
ChartNerd
(@ChartNerdTA) September 25, 2026
The chart covers price action from early 2025 through a projected decline into late 2026. XRP peaked at $3.65 in July 2025, then fell sharply, bottoming near $1 in August. Two red horizontal lines mark the key levels. The lower sits near $1.55, the Scenario 1 rejection zone. The upper sits near $2, the Scenario 2 retest zone.
A white moving average curves downward across the chart, confirming the bearish trend structure. Projected price paths show both scenarios converging lower into Q4.
ChartNerd’s current outlook carries weight. Earlier in 2025, when most analysts held bullish targets for XRP, he projected the asset would sweep below $1. In August, that call proved correct. His willingness to take a contrarian position and be right in his Q4 analysis added credibility among traders watching the asset.
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Not everyone agreed with his outlook. A commenter challenged ChartNerd with a bullish projection. He acknowledged the long-term case for XRP and linked to his own bullish projection. The analyst noted that XRP’s macro direction is upward. However, that does not negate short-term moves.
ChartNerd has previously set a $27 target for 2030 and shared analysis projecting double-digit prices over a longer time horizon. The next several weeks will reveal which scenario plays out. A failure to push higher from current levels confirms Scenario 1. A move toward $2 opens Scenario 2 before the expected decline. Both paths lead to a Q4 retrace.
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