Prediction markets could become a $1.7 billion annual business for Robinhood (Nasdaq: HOOD) by 2028, potentially surpassing the trading platform's projected crypto revenue, according to Berns
Prediction markets could become a $1.7 billion annual business for Robinhood (Nasdaq: HOOD) by 2028, potentially surpassing the trading platform's projected crypto revenue, according to Bernstein.
The forecast comes as Robinhood gears up to report its third-quarter earnings on Tuesday, Oct. 27, after the market closes.
Bernstein expects prediction-market revenue to rise from roughly $650 million this year to $1.7 billion in 2028, making up about 18% of its projected $9.4 billion in total revenue in that year.
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The firm kept its $160 price target unchanged but raised its revenue forecasts by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 3% for 2028. Bernstein expects Robinhood’s Q3 revenue to rise about 13% from the prior quarter to roughly $1.5 billion, fueled by equities, options, event contracts and a recovery in crypto activity.
Robinhood, for the second quarter this year, hit a record revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32% from a year earlier. Net deposits on the platform reached $22 billion and Robinhood Gold subscribers climbed to 4.8 million.
Prediction market activities acted as a noteworthy revenue contributor for the California-headquartered company.
In Q2, event-contract revenue on Robinhood reached $156 million, up more than 10x year over year, while crypto trading revenue fell 38% to $100 million.
Event contracts therefore already out-earned crypto trading in Q2, although that quarterly comparison is distinct from Bernstein's annual forecasts.
Robinhood also reported diluted earnings of $0.62 per share, including about $0.14 from gains primarily related to the deconsolidation of Robinhood Ventures Fund I.
Robinhood shares traded at $93.20 in Monday afternoon trading, well below Bernstein's $160 price target, though analyst price targets are not guarantees of future performance.
The company also announced on Oct. 22 that it had received Dubai Financial Services Authority authorization and plans to launch its Middle East product suite in 2027.
Shares nevertheless slipped after the announcement.
Tuesday's earnings will offer a clearer test of whether event-contract growth, recovering crypto trading and broader market activity are supporting Bernstein's near-term expectations.
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