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Markets

Analyst warns Bitcoin should be down 40% after two weeks of chaos

Crypto has had a brutal two weeks. A major exchange hack, a wave of forced selling, a global market rout and a midterm election that flipped Congress have all landed in quick succession. Yet

AnonymousCryptoCompass newsroom
November 6, 2026
3 min read
NEWS
Analyst warns Bitcoin should be down 40% after two weeks of chaos
CryptoCompass editorial visual for markets coverage.

Crypto has had a brutal two weeks. A major exchange hack, a wave of forced selling, a global market rout and a midterm election that flipped Congress have all landed in quick succession.

Yet Bitcoin is still standing. One analyst argues that resilience says more than the losses do.

“In a bear market, any one of these events could have triggered a massive crash,” crypto analyst Ash Crypto wrote on X. 

A bear market is a long stretch of falling prices and fading confidence. He said Bitcoin “would probably be down 40% by now.” 

Instead, he noted, it is down just 13% from its recent high.

Ash Crypto’s case rests on who is left in the market. 

“Most of the panic sellers are already out,” he wrote. 

In his view, investors who held through the chaos are unlikely to sell now.

Related: Bitcoin, stocks crash in steepest selloff since Liberation Day

Two weeks of hits

The list he points to is long. He calls the recent attack on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume, the biggest hack in crypto history.

Then came the midterms. Democrats won control of both the House and Senate on Nov. 3. 

That put pressure on the CLARITY Act, the stalled bill meant to set clear U.S. rules for crypto. It now has only weeks left before the current Congress ends.

Markets briefly cheered the result before reversing hard. 

On Nov. 5, the Nasdaq slid into correction territory as investors reassessed AI spending. Bitcoin fell more than 5%, erasing its post-election gain. 

Roughly $878 million in crypto positions were liquidated in four hours, according to CoinGlass data. Liquidations are when traders using borrowed money are forced to close their bets as prices move against them.

The holders who stayed

The analyst’s case rests on who is left in the market. 

“Most of the panic sellers are already out,” he wrote. 

In his view, investors who held through the chaos are unlikely to sell now.

He also expects a “next big rally,” though he gave no timeline or price target.

Bitcoin price at press time. Source: Decibel

At press time, Bitcoin traded near $76,150, down about 5.3% over 24 hours, according to Decibel data. 

Whether the floor holds may depend on how much more selling the market can absorb.

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