Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, made a distinction that the broader crypto market rarely makes cleanly, Bitcoin and altcoins do not face the same political risk in a
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, made a distinction that the broader crypto market rarely makes cleanly, Bitcoin and altcoins do not face the same political risk in a Democratic administration.
Speaking with CNBC on Aug. 26, Sigel said the upcoming U.S. midterm election cycle introduces uncertainty but does not fundamentally change the Bitcoin thesis.
"Biden was actually quite OK for Bitcoin," Sigel said. "It's the rest of cryptos that might have a problem."
He argues that Bitcoin benefits from its decentralized, scarce, and fixed-supply characteristics regardless of which party holds power.
In an environment where the ascendant progressive wing of the Democratic Party increases government spending, Sigel said more people are reminded of precisely why a scarce asset that cannot be printed has value.
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“With the ascendant socialist wing of the Democrat Party, you know, I can tell you here in New York City, there are plenty who are reminded of why there is value in a decentralized scarce asset that can't be printed and spent on nonsense,” he said.
Sigel was more specific about what gives him confidence in the current rally than the political backdrop.
He described the five day performance Bitcoin just delivered as a more than three sigma event, adding that the subsequent one-year performance following comparable setups has historically been strong.
"I think there's a lot of folks now that are going to feel more confident about buying dips," he said. "The first part of this rally was short covering and it's going to take some real money behind it to go higher from here."
He acknowledged a trading range or retracement is likely in the near term, but argued the quantitative foundation beneath the move is stronger than anything the midterms can disrupt.
Asked whether another FTX-style collapse is possible, Sigel said the leverage picture has changed materially.
"A lot of the leverage in the system has been brought onto regulated rails," he said, citing CME Futures and Strategy as examples of visible institutional leverage, contrasting sharply with FTX, Celsius, and Three Arrows, whose leverage was opaque before they collapsed.
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