Benjamin Cowen built his reputation by being early. The crypto analyst behind Into The Cryptoverse, a popular YouTube channel focused on Bitcoin cycle analysis, is widely credited with callin
Benjamin Cowen built his reputation by being early.
The crypto analyst behind Into The Cryptoverse, a popular YouTube channel focused on Bitcoin cycle analysis, is widely credited with calling the 2021 crypto collapse before most of the market saw it coming.
That track record made him one of the most-followed bearish voices in the space. It also made his 2026 call harder to ignore, and harder to walk back.
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Cowen spent months arguing that a familiar sequence was playing out: rising energy prices would push yields higher, force the Federal Reserve to hike rates, strengthen the dollar, and drag Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, lower.
As recently as September 4, he assigned a 65% probability that Bitcoin's cycle low was still ahead, with some scenarios pointing as low as $44,000.
Every link in his chain held, except the last one. Bitcoin rallied past $85,000 this week instead of falling, breaking the midterm-year patterns from 2014, 2018, and 2022 that had underpinned his outlook.
On September 21, Cowen posted on X: "I was wrong. Not going to make excuses. I deserve to be dunked on."
I was wrongNot going to make excusesI deserve to be dunked on
— Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) September 21, 2026
The breakout triggered more than $831 million in short liquidations, bets against Bitcoin's price, within 24 hours, dwarfing the roughly $130 million in long liquidations over the same period.
Traders who had positioned for Cowen's deeper low paid a steep and immediate price.
In the YouTube video, Cowen walked through rate-hike history and acknowledged that no previous Fed tightening cycle had produced an immediate Bitcoin selloff, undercutting the core of his own thesis. He said the burden of proof has now shifted from bulls to bears.
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