Key Takeaways TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo projects a Q4 2026 foldable iPhone launch, with constrained Q3 shipments of just 500K–1M devices H2 2026 foldable iPhone shipments projected a
Apple’s long-awaited foldable iPhone is generating massive anticipation across the tech world, but supply constraints may leave eager buyers waiting months for delivery.
According to Kuo, Apple’s foldable “iPhone Ultra” could follow the iPhone X launch strategy
> Announced alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup> Pre-orders may slip to late October> Sales could begin in early November due to limited supply> Apple reportedly expects only 7–8M… pic.twitter.com/3QP25fYDgp
— apple files (@applefiles_) July 5, 2026
Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities indicated over the weekend that while Apple may reveal its foldable device during its fall product event, actual preorders and retail availability might slip into Q4 2026 as production ramps up gradually.
Shares of Apple were changing hands at $309 during Monday trading, posting a modest 0.1% gain following Thursday’s impressive 4.8% surge. The tech giant’s stock continues hovering close to its 52-week peak of $317.40.
According to Kuo’s projections, Apple will ship approximately 7 to 8 million foldable iPhones during the latter half of 2026. However, only a fraction of those units—between 500,000 and 1 million—will arrive during the third quarter.
This creates an extraordinarily narrow supply channel for what analysts anticipate will be overwhelming consumer interest.
“The foldable iPhone could sell out immediately after preorders open, with delivery lead times quickly stretching 4–6 weeks or longer and remaining there through December,” Kuo noted in his analysis.
While the anticipated $2,300 to $2,500 price range represents a significant premium, Kuo believes demand will remain strong regardless. He anticipates healthy sales momentum even at these elevated price points.
Kuo referenced Apple’s strategic approach during the iPhone X debut in 2017, when the company deliberately managed a phased rollout to generate excitement before expanding manufacturing capacity. The foldable device strategy appears to mirror that calculated methodology.
For market participants, the critical evaluation period arrives later in the cycle. Kuo emphasizes that late 2026 through early 2027 will provide the clearest picture of “true demand” for the foldable model, after initial launch enthusiasm subsides and availability normalizes.
Jefferies cautioned Monday that AAPL shares might remain “potentially range-bound” in the near term, citing uncertainty around broader product demand patterns ahead of the new launch window.
Apple’s most recent quarterly results delivered earnings per share of $2.01, surpassing the $1.95 Street estimate, with revenues reaching $111.18 billion—reflecting 16.6% year-over-year growth. The company simultaneously increased its quarterly dividend from $0.26 to $0.27 per share.
Among institutional investors, Realta Investment Advisors expanded its Apple holdings by 3.0% during the first quarter, positioning AAPL as its top holding at 7.1% of the portfolio, valued at approximately $20.46 million.
Analyst coverage remains largely constructive. Maxim Group established a bullish $350 price objective, while Robert W. Baird set its target at $310. Meanwhile, DA Davidson and Rosenblatt maintained more conservative neutral ratings with targets of $270 and $276 respectively.
The Street’s aggregate view registers as “Moderate Buy” with a mean price target landing at $314.85.
Regarding insider transactions, CFO Kevan Parekh divested 1,534 shares during April at $275 per share, while insider Ben Borders sold 1,274 shares in May at $290.
Apple currently commands a market capitalization of $4.53 trillion, trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 37.32.
The post Apple (AAPL) Stock: Could the Foldable iPhone Trigger a Major Rally in 2026? appeared first on Blockonomi.
