Arbitrum's daily gain contrasts with falling trading volume, leaving questions about the strength and staying power of its recovery. The four hour chart also indicates further downward potent
The price action of Arbitrum is stuck between a short-term recovery and a bigger corrective structure, and traders are keeping an eye on the nearby support and resistance.
In a post on X, Nology presents a revised view of ARB's four-hour chart. The proposed count allows for another downward leg before the correction ends. It follows a strong rally that carried the token from summer lows towards $0.25.
Source: X
That advance began around July, when ARB traded near $0.07–$0.09. Buying accelerated in late August and September, lifting price above several earlier trading ranges. The move eventually reached approximately $0.25 before momentum began to fade.
Since that peak, the chart has formed lower highs and lower lows. Nology interprets the sequence as an unfinished ABC correction. The final decline could complete five smaller waves within that broader pattern.
The projected route does not show an uninterrupted fall. Instead, it allows for a rebound towards $0.17–$0.18 before sellers return. That resistance area could determine whether the corrective count remains intact.
The market data as of writing places ARB at approximately $0.1634, up 1.65% over 24 hours. Price climbed from around $0.161 and briefly moved above $0.165. It later retreated, giving back part of that advance.
The $0.163 area now provides the nearest visible support. Buyers have repeatedly defended this region during the displayed session. A sustained break below it could expose $0.162, followed by the earlier $0.161 level.
On the upside, $0.164 is the first area buyers need to reclaim. A move through that level could bring $0.165–$0.166 back into view. However, the latest chart shows repeated hesitation near the session highs.
Trading volume adds a qualification to the daily gain. Reported 24-hour volume has fallen 35.72%, despite the positive price movement. That decline suggests the advance has not attracted stronger trading participation.
The derivatives breakdown shows Binance leading ARB open interest at $40.29 million. Bybit follows with $25.80 million, while Gate holds $23.88 million. MEXC records $21.85 million, placing four exchanges above $20 million.
Source: Coinglass
Binance also leads reported futures volume, with $31.33 million. BingX follows at $17.98 million, while OKX records $13.31 million. Bybit's $8.94 million places it below several exchanges despite its second-place open interest.
Trade counts show a similar concentration around Binance. The exchange records around 326,830 futures trades compared to BingX's 140,610. Bybit follows with 98,300, while OKX records 74,070.
The numbers are not market direction, they are just the places that contracts are held and traded. The direction of speculators, long or short, is not determined by the open interest. Funding rates and liquidation data would aid in determining positioning.
If the projected decline resumes, the $0.15–$0.14 region becomes important. A move through that support band could bring the chart's deeper $0.115 level into focus. Conversely, holding support and recovering above $0.18 would challenge the bearish wave count.
Now, ARB has to show two conflicting signals – a mild daily bounce and a feeble bigger pattern. The lower reference is $0.14, and the immediate test is the $0.163 area. The next move is still in question until price breaks either way with more involvement.
