Bernstein is sticking with its bullish call on Circle Internet Group, but the more interesting part of Monday's note is what the firm says does not need to happen for the thesis to work. Anal
Bernstein is sticking with its bullish call on Circle Internet Group, but the more interesting part of Monday's note is what the firm says does
not need to happen for the thesis to work. Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani reiterated an Outperform rating and $140 price target on Circle, arguing that the next USDC growth cycle can continue even if Congress fails to pass the CLARITY Act. The target represented roughly 59% upside from Circle's $87.98 Friday close when the note was published. That puts Bernstein on the opposite side of an argument FinanceFeeds examined in July, when Mizuho warned that regulatory clarity itself could become a problem for Circle by opening stablecoins to larger competitors and compressing the economics of USDC. The disagreement is no longer simply about whether Washington is good or bad for crypto. It is about whether Circle needs legislation to protect its growth at all.
Bernstein Says USDC Is Starting to Grow Again
Bernstein's strongest evidence is coming from the blockchain rather than Congress. USDC supply increased by about $1.7 billion over the past week after roughly six months in which supply was largely flat, according to the firm's August 24 note. Bernstein sees that as the beginning of what it describes as a new growth cycle driven by payments, tokenized assets, decentralized finance and machine-to-machine transactions. The transaction data is moving in the same direction. Bernstein estimates adjusted stablecoin transaction volume, stripping out bots and high-frequency activity, is running at an annualized
$17 trillion through July. That compares with about $11 trillion during 2025. Circle's own numbers provide another data point. Its Agent Stack now contains more than
900 paid services, while the company reported that
99.3% of x402 agent-payment volume settles in USDC. Circle disclosed the same 900-plus service count and 99.3% settlement share with its Q2 results earlier this month. For Bernstein, those use cases matter more to the valuation than the precise legislative outcome.
Mizuho Saw the Same Bill Very Differently
In July, Mizuho analysts led by Dan Dolev made almost the reverse argument. As FinanceFeeds
reported on July 23, Mizuho argued that passage of the CLARITY Act could accelerate competition by giving large institutions a clearer route into stablecoins. More issuers and distributors, in that view, would turn stablecoins into a more commoditized product and put pressure on the portion of reserve income Circle keeps after payments to partners. There has been an important update since that article. Mizuho no longer has an Underperform rating and $50 target on Circle. On July 31, it upgraded the stock to Neutral while cutting its target to
$45. The firm also reduced its forecast for average USDC circulation in 2027 to $110 billion from $127 billion and continued to cite competitive pressure as a concern. So the live comparison is not $140 versus $50. The sharper contrast is between the two firms' underlying assumptions. Mizuho's July case was that regulatory clarity could erode Circle's economics by inviting competition. Bernstein's August case is that USDC adoption is becoming broad enough that Circle's growth cycle no longer depends on what Congress does next.
The On-Chain Numbers Are the Tiebreaker
The CLARITY Act itself remains unresolved in the Senate, even after renewed White House pressure for Congress to pass crypto market-structure legislation. That makes the next few months unusually useful for testing the two theses. If USDC supply, payments and agent activity continue accelerating while the bill remains stalled, Bernstein gets evidence that Circle can grow without a legislative catalyst. If supply stalls again or competition forces Circle to give more economics to distributors, Mizuho's commoditization argument looks harder to dismiss. Right now, the first break in six months of flat USDC supply gives Bernstein the stronger new data point. The $140 target is the headline. The more important call is that Circle may no longer need Congress to get there.
