Bitcoin's slide to around $60,000 has a specific origin story, according to billionaire investor Mike Novogratz, and it runs straight through Michael Saylor's balance sheet. Speaking with Ant
Bitcoin's slide to around $60,000 has a specific origin story, according to billionaire investor Mike Novogratz, and it runs straight through Michael Saylor's balance sheet.
Speaking with Anthony Scaramucci in a recent podcast, the Galaxy Digital CEO said the current Bitcoin sell-off is not a random market event. It is a "MicroStrategy-led breakdown in confidence", arriving at a moment when crypto is already underloved and institutional conviction is thin on the ground, he argued.
Related: Ex-Trump advisor sends a bold message to Saylor's haters
Strategy is sitting on roughly $14 billion in unrealized losses. Novogratz was blunt about what that means in practice: markets go to sources of pain.
If traders can push Bitcoin down hard enough to force a liquidation event at Strategy, the profit on that trade is enormous. The pressure on Bitcoin is not incidental, it is targeted.
That dynamic alone would be enough to rattle the market. But Novogratz argued it is not operating in isolation.
“This is a MicroStrategy-led breakdown in confidence around that complex, which is creating a crisis of confidence in Bitcoin. At a time when crypto in general is underloved, right? People are more and more skeptical about market structure. There's energy elsewhere,” he said during the discussion.
“There's some feeling of vulnerability given a $14 billion unrealized loss at Saylor's Strategy. And so what tends to happen is, markets go to sources of pain and see if they can break the guy, right? So if they jam Bitcoin super down and explode him, then they can make massive profits,” he further added.
Federal Reserve chair Kevin Walsh came out hawkish in his first meeting, removing one tailwind Bitcoin had been counting on. Then, the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent surprised markets by making the case for a strong dollar, the first time he had done so publicly after months of the administration leaning toward a weaker dollar.
Novogratz was blunt: strong dollar is weak Bitcoin. Both moves hit at the same time, compounding the pressure.
“Bessent came and piled on as a strong dollar guy. You know, strong dollar is weak Bitcoin. And that's the first time we've really heard Besson two days, yesterday, or the day before, come out and make the case for why the strong dollar is good for the U.S. economy. They kind of wanted a weaker dollar,” Novogratz said.
Novogratz sees Bitcoin and gold as correlated bear market assets right now, both down roughly 45-50% from their highs. He doesn't expect a rate cut cycle soon, but flagged that the war ending and oil prices falling could bring inflation down faster than expected.
That could open the door to rate cut talk by year end or early next year, which would give Bitcoin room to breathe. For now, the market is testing the weakest hands first.
Bitcoin was trading at $60,428 at press time.
Related: Analyst reveals the simple rule that could help you survive any crypto downturn
