TLDR: The Crosby Ratio Z-score is near -1.7, placing it above 99.8% of all daily readings in Bitcoin’s history. Bitcoin’s weekly RSI and Crosby Ratio both reference the same four historical l
Five signals pointing to Bitcoin accumulation have emerged simultaneously, each registering readings seen only a handful of times across the asset’s entire history.
The Crosby Ratio Z-score, weekly RSI, 200-week moving average, SOPR, and Mayer Multiple are all sitting at or near historical extremes.
Each prior instance where this combination appeared was followed by meaningful price recovery. On-chain and technical analysts say the current setup is consistent with previous cycle lows.
The Crosby Ratio Z-score is one of the five signals pointing to Bitcoin accumulation, currently registering near -1.7. That reading places it above 99.8% of all daily readings recorded throughout Bitcoin’s history.
The indicator is designed to adjust for Bitcoin’s maturing volatility, keeping it relevant across different market cycles.
Source: Bitcoin magazine pro
Prior instances at this depth include the COVID crash, the 2018 bear market low, the first break below $20,000 in 2022, and the recent drop to $60,000.
Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is producing a near-identical list of historical comparisons. Readings this low on the weekly RSI have only occurred during the 2015 bear market low, the 2018 cycle bottom, the COVID crash, and the recent $60,000 drop.
Two indicators measured through completely different methodologies are pointing to the same short list of precedents. That level of convergence across independent tools is not common.
The SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, adds a third layer to the accumulation case. It is currently sitting in the bottom fifth percentile of all historical readings, meaning realized losses across the network are near record depths.
Value days destroyed data confirms that long-term holders have not been the primary sellers. The selling has come from short-term traders and leveraged positions being flushed out.
The Mayer Multiple, which measures Bitcoin’s price relative to its 200-day moving average, is also in its bottom fifth percentile.
When both SOPR and the Mayer Multiple have reached these depths at the same time historically, the periods that followed proved to be strong accumulation windows.
This dual-indicator condition has occurred only a few times in Bitcoin’s price history. Each instance preceded notable price appreciation.
The fifth of the five signals pointing to Bitcoin accumulation is the 200-week moving average, a level that has held as bear market support across every prior cycle.
Source: Bitcoin Magazine pro
The only exception was the FTX collapse in late 2022, which caused a brief breach before a rapid recovery. Outside of that single event, this moving average has functioned as a reliable floor. Bitcoin has just bounced off this level again.
Directly beneath current prices, the recent cycle low sits in close proximity to the 200-week moving average. Together, these two levels form the structure of a potential double bottom, a technical formation that has preceded reversals across multiple markets.
The Bitcoin Realized Price also converges in approximately the same zone. That layering of technical and on-chain support adds further weight to the current price area.
The decline that produced these readings pushed through $70,000 with more force than many anticipated. However, the data that emerged as a result follows a pattern that has appeared before.
On-chain data shows the selling pressure has been short-term in nature, with long-term holders largely staying in position. That behavior mirrors what occurred at previous cycle lows where weaker hands drove the final capitulation.
Taken together, the five signals present a case that current price levels reflect a historically rare accumulation window.
The realized price, sitting not far below current levels, remains the next meaningful support zone if prices revisit recent lows.
Analysts note that all five indicators reaching these depths at the same time has occurred only a handful of times in Bitcoin’s history. Each prior instance was followed by a recovery.
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