Bitcoin enters October around 85000 dollars after gaining nearly 9% in September. Its seasonal history and several on-chain indicators support the scenario of an “Uptober”, but profit-taking
Bitcoin enters October around 85000 dollars after gaining nearly 9% in September. Its seasonal history and several on-chain indicators support the scenario of an “Uptober”, but profit-taking is already reaching an unprecedented level in 2026.
Bitcoin has remained between 83000 and 85000 dollars in recent days. This consolidation comes after a rapid rise from 76000 dollars, followed by a peak near 87000 dollars.
October maintains a favorable reputation among investors. Out of the last 13 observed years, ten Octobers ended in the green. However, the three exceptions remind us that this seasonality is not a guarantee.
Start your crypto adventure safely with OKXThis link uses an affiliate program.Several data explain the return of the Uptober scenario :
The precedent of October 2025 calls for caution, as Bitcoin then set a record above 126000 dollars before ending the month down about 4%. This underperformance ended a streak of seven consecutive positive Octobers.
The bullish argument does not rely solely on seasonality. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. also notes an evolution in the adjusted MVRV indicator, which compares Bitcoin’s valuation to its average acquisition cost on the blockchain.
The ratio between its 30-day and 365-day averages crossed its own annual average on August 20. It then rose above the threshold of 1 on September 20. According to the analyst, this movement marks the transition from an early bullish phase to a true bullish regime.
Since 2012, this configuration has occurred only six times. In four of the five previous comparable signals, Bitcoin was worth more at the end of the bullish regime than at the time of crossing.
The exception dates back to August 2015. The bullish phase then lasted only 16 days before a return to a less favorable regime. The sample remains too limited to turn this signal into a reliable forecast.
Flows into US Bitcoin ETFs provide a second supporting argument. Spot funds notably received 433 million dollars on September 18, after 159.5 million dollars the day before. They had already attracted 3.52 billion in August.
Over a three-week period, subscriptions reportedly approached 3.8 billion dollars. This demand accompanied BTC’s rise above 86000 dollars and its return to an eight-month high.
There is also a decrease in bitcoins available on exchanges. Such withdrawals can reduce the supply immediately accessible for sale, but they do not necessarily mean holders are accumulating. Some transfers correspond to custodian changes or institutional movements.
The market also remains dependent on macroeconomic conditions. A further rise in bond yields, more restrictive monetary policy, or a slowdown in flows to ETFs could quickly weaken the expected seasonal effect.
The main warning comes from profits accumulated by holders. On September 26, the market’s unrealized profit margin reached 33%, its highest level since December 2024.
At the same time, about 25700 BTC were spent with a profit, the highest volume of 2026. At the current price, these bitcoins represent more than 2.1 billion dollars.
“This combination generally signals a weakening of the bullish move,”estimates Julio Moreno, research director at CryptoQuant. It therefore increases the risk of a correction as holders secure their gains.
The threshold of 87000 dollars now represents the first visible resistance. Its crossing would strengthen the scenario of a continued rise in October. Conversely, a break below the 83000 dollar zone could bring Bitcoin back to 80000 dollars. Uptober remains statistically credible, but its realization will depend more on new buyers than on the calendar.
