Bitcoin could face a sharp pullback after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3, according to analyst Ali Charts. In a five-part thread on X on Tuesday, the analyst laid out a pattern of post-
Bitcoin could face a sharp pullback after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3, according to analyst Ali Charts.
In a five-part thread on X on Tuesday, the analyst laid out a pattern of post-midterm declines going back to 2010 and named $73,000 as the level to watch if history repeats.
The analyst pointed to Bitcoin's performance following the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms, when the token fell 72%, 65%, 52% and 27%, respectively.
He was careful to note that the elections did not necessarily cause the drops, but called the pattern worth watching as Nov. 3 approaches.
The thread also flagged Bitcoin's uneven record in the fourth quarter. It gained 391% in fourth quarter of 2010, but lost 16.7% in Q4 2014, 42.16% in Q4 2018 and 14.75% in Q4 2022.
With Q4 2026 underway, Ali Charts said the seasonality points to possible volatility ahead.
If the post-midterm pattern holds, the analyst said Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis, near $73,000, could act as key support.
Citing Glassnode data, the thread noted this level has often held during corrections within confirmed bull markets, which could turn a dip into a buying opportunity.
Ali Charts said the strategy is to watch for weakness after the midterms and buy near $73,000 if the drop materializes.
The thread stopped short of calling it a certainty, framing it instead as a level worth tracking through November and December.
This is one analyst's reading of past cycles, not a guaranteed outcome.
Earlier this month, VanEck's head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, said Bitcoin could climb to $100,000 by next year.
He pointed out that Bitcoin's volatility has dropped by roughly 50% compared with four years ago. He called it a shift from the previous market cycle.
