Key Takeaways BTC has broken above its multi-week descending channel from the $57,800 low. 7-day exchange netflow remains deeply negative at -10,274 BTC despite a +127 BTC inflow on July 11.
The channel break is the cleanest technical development Bitcoin has produced since the June selloff. Price spent five weeks grinding lower, printing the $57,800 low in late June before climbing back through the upper boundary this week. The structure that follows a channel exit tends to be decided quickly: either the breakout level holds as support on a retest, or price slips back inside and the move is classified as a fakeout.
Daily technical chart for BTC/USD, illustrating recent price action against key moving averages and trend resistance. The 50-day SMA, currently hovering just above the price, is the level to watch. A daily close above this resistance, followed by a successful retest, could significantly increase the probability of a continued upward move. Rejection here keeps the sequence of lower highs intact.
The flows behind the move look supportive without being decisive, per CryptoQuant data. Exchange netflow turned slightly positive at +127.45 BTC on July 11 after -432.25 BTC the previous day, a marginal shift that means little against the 7-day figure, which remains deeply negative at -10,274.19 BTC. Coins have been leaving exchanges all week; one small inflow does not establish renewed selling pressure.
Bitcoin total exchange netflow and price movements observed from June to July 2026. Derivatives tell a similar story of tension draining rather than building. Funding fell from 0.007781 to 0.004945, still positive, so longs remain dominant, but the market is paying less for leverage than it was three days ago. Open interest near $21.83 billion is down just 0.13% on the day after rising 4.59% across three sessions, a pause rather than a flush. NUPL improved from 0.1601 to 0.1730, showing unrealized profits expanding without approaching the zones associated with overheated positioning.
Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) trend line relative to price from August 2025 to July 2026. Taken together, the picture is neutral-to-constructive: spot flows supportive, leverage risk cooling, profitability improving, and none of it euphoric. The setup would weaken if exchange inflows become repeated and large, or if funding and open interest climb together while price stalls below the 50-day, the classic sign of leverage pushing against a wall that spot demand refuses to break. Until one of those happens, Bitcoin is stabilizing above its old channel rather than confirming a new trend, and the retest of the breakout line is the level that could decide which word applies.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry a high level of risk, and readers should conduct their own research and consult a professional advisor before making any investment decisions. Coindoo is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of actions taken based on the content of this article.
The post Bitcoin Breaks Downtrend: Will the Price Confirm Its Path to Higher Gains? appeared first on Coindoo.
