TLDR Bitcoin fell to $67,500 on Nov. 13, just under its 200-week moving average of $67,993. This is the first test of that long-term average since Aug. 19, about 11 weeks ago. Keith Alan of M
Bitcoin slipped to $67,500 on Nov. 13, falling below its 200-week simple moving average of $67,993. The move marked the first time the price has touched that long-term average since Aug. 19, about 11 weeks ago.
The gap between the price and the average was small, at roughly $493, or less than 1%. Even so, the test has drawn attention from traders who follow long-term trend lines.
The 200-week moving average tracks Bitcoin’s average price over nearly four years. In past bear markets, it has often acted as a key support or resistance level.
Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, pointed to a different signal on the weekly chart, according to Cointelegraph. He said Bitcoin could fall to $57,700, the low of the current cycle, if its weekly relative strength index drops below 41.5.
The relative strength index, or RSI, measures how fast and how far a price has moved. Traders use it to judge whether an asset is overbought or oversold.
The 41.5 level on the weekly RSI has held as support since late July. That means the indicator has bounced from the same zone for more than three months.
A move to $57,700 would mean a decline of about $9,800 from the Nov. 13 low. That works out to a drop of roughly 14.5% from current levels.
Bitcoin Price on CoinGecko
Alan did not describe only a downside case. He said Bitcoin could also turn back into an uptrend if buyers defend the current support zone.
That puts two lines in focus at the same time. One is the $67,993 moving average on the price chart, and the other is the 41.5 mark on the weekly RSI.
Futures data shows many traders are still betting on higher prices. About 77.3% of positions were long, meaning they profit if the price rises.
Among top traders, the long-to-short ratio stood at 2.12. In other words, that group held just over two long positions for every short position.
When long bets are this heavy, a break of support can force some of them to close. Traders call these forced closures liquidations, and they can add to selling.
Funding rates, which are fees paid between long and short traders, were neutral. This shows neither side was paying a heavy premium to keep its position open.
Momentum readings were weak. The MACD indicator was negative, a sign that recent selling has outpaced buying.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s daily RSI fell to 28.4. Readings under 30 are generally seen as oversold on the daily chart.
The daily and weekly charts are now showing different pictures. The daily RSI sits in oversold territory, while the weekly RSI is still above the 41.5 support Alan highlighted.
As of Nov. 13, Bitcoin traded near $67,500, about $493 under its 200-week moving average. The $57,700 cycle low remains the lowest price Bitcoin has reached in the current cycle.
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