Traders have concentrated 4.5 billion dollars of bitcoin call options between 90000 and 100000 dollars, with an expiration set for October 30. This accumulation reflects a renewed interest in
Traders have concentrated 4.5 billion dollars of bitcoin call options between 90000 and 100000 dollars, with an expiration set for October 30. This accumulation reflects a renewed interest in a BTC price increase, without constituting a unanimous market forecast.
Bitcoin is trading around 83000 dollars, after regaining part of the lost ground earlier this month. On the options market, call contracts now represent 60.24% of open interest, versus 39.76% for put options.
The October 30 expiration concentrates a large part of these positions. Deribit, the main platform in the sector, records notably the equivalent of 25030 BTC on call options set at 95000 dollars. Their notional value approaches 2.07 billion dollars.
Start your crypto adventure safely with OKXThis link uses an affiliate program.Three strike prices currently dominate this expiration :
The 95000 dollar threshold thus constitutes the main concentration point. To reach it, bitcoin would need to rise about 14% from its current price before contract settlement.
This setup seems to favor a bullish scenario. However, it does not mean that 4.5 billion dollars have actually been invested to bet on a BTC increase.
The 4.5 billion dollar value corresponds to the notional amount of the contracts. It is obtained by multiplying the number of bitcoins represented by the options by the asset price. Investors pay only a premium to buy these contracts, generally much lower than their notional value.
Open interest also does not specify each participant’s strategy. A call option always involves a buyer and a seller. Some traders may anticipate a bitcoin rise, while others sell the same contracts because they believe the price will remain below their strike price.
Investors also combine several options to form complex strategies. For example, an operator might buy a call at 90000 dollars and sell another at 95000 dollars to limit cost and potential gain. Others use these products to hedge an existing position.
The dominance of calls therefore constitutes a sentiment indicator, not proof that the entire market expects bitcoin at 95000 dollars. The volume observed over the last 24 hours actually shows a tighter balance: 54.02% for call options against 45.98% for put options.
The “maximum pain” price for the October 30 expiration is around 78000 dollars on Deribit. This level corresponds to the price at which the total amount paid to option holders would theoretically be the lowest at settlement.
On Binance and OKX, this point is rather between 81000 and 82000 dollars. It therefore remains below the current bitcoin price and clearly distant from positions concentrated between 90000 and 100000 dollars.
Maximum pain, however, is not a prediction. It fluctuates with the opening and closing of positions. On a market dominated by calls, its level can also remain mechanically below bitcoin price.
Finally, futures provide a more cautious signal. Their open interest reaches about 51.7 billion dollars, after a 1.59% drop in 24 hours. Part of the leveraged positions has thus been closed, while options continue to attract traders.
The market will now have to watch bitcoin’s ability to sustainably exceed 90000 dollars. Without this progress, a large portion of calls placed at 95000 and 100000 dollars could expire worthless on October 30.
