Bitcoin Closes May Down 3% With ISM PMI Data Due Next Week

Bitcoin ended May trading near $73,500, locking in a roughly 3% monthly loss. The price remained stuck below 2025 yearly lows through the final weekend of the month, with no meaningful boost from easing geopolitical tensions or positive US equity performance.

US stocks closed the last week of May at new all-time highs. Bitcoin failed to follow. Progress on a potential US-Iran ceasefire, which lifted equities, left BTC traders unmoved. US President Donald Trump told reporters he was "in no hurry" to finalize an Iran deal, removing a short-term catalyst.

The week ahead carries real weight for risk assets. US labor-market data dominates the calendar, including the May print of the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index. This single number has repeatedly moved Bitcoin in recent months.

What the PMI Does to Bitcoin

The ISM PMI measures economic output by surveying hundreds of US manufacturing companies. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. Bitcoin has tracked PMI data closely in 2026, rising when numbers beat expectations and weakening when they miss.

April's ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7%, matching March and extending US economic expansion to its 18th consecutive month. That run of strength has kept risk appetite alive even as Bitcoin drifted lower.

The preliminary S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for May came in at 55.3, up from 54.5 in April and above the 53.8 consensus, the strongest manufacturing reading since May 2022. If the ISM May figure, due Monday, matches that strength, analysts expect BTC to reprice higher.

The Road Down From $126,000

Bitcoin's May decline did not happen in isolation. BTC hit its all-time high of $126,173 on October 6, 2025, powered by institutional inflows, ETF adoption, and a crypto-friendly US administration. The price has since shed over 41% from that peak.

Bitcoin is now roughly 40% below that October 2025 top, with the MVRV-Z score sitting at 0.77, placing it in fair-value territory. That reading does not suggest extreme undervaluation but does take away the argument for deep fundamental distress.

The post-ATH decline accelerated in May as institutional money pulled out. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nine consecutive trading days of net outflows, the longest withdrawal streak since the products launched in January 2024, with investors pulling roughly $2.8 billion over that run.

This followed a strong April that saw roughly $2 billion in net inflows, the best monthly total of 2026, and an early-May streak that pushed cumulative inflows since ETF inception past the $57 billion mark.

ETF Selling Meets Spot Demand

The ETF bleed has been severe but price has not collapsed proportionally. Despite $1.47 billion leaving crypto investment products in the week ending May 24, BTC held near $77,000, because spot demand outside the ETF channel absorbed much of the institutional selling.

Analysts attribute the ETF outflows to US-Iran geopolitical tension, BTC breaking below $73,000, and a general retreat from risk assets by institutions actively reducing crypto exposure.

The correlation between Treasury yield movements and Bitcoin ETF flows has become one of the most reliable patterns in the market, with capital rotating out of crypto each time bond traders price in prolonged elevated Fed rates.

The $73,000 Level and What Analysts Watch

Trader Rekt Capital identified $73,000 as the technical line that matters for the monthly close. A weekly close above that level would confirm a double-bottom formation visible on the weekly chart that has developed since late February, placing BTC in position to attempt a trend continuation.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades placed the broader context around the weekly 200-day moving average and exponential moving average, both still rising and converging toward price. He projected that BTC could trade between $60,000 and $80,000 for an extended period given the density of high-timeframe levels clustered in the current zone.

Bitcoin's RSI has dropped to around 35, approaching oversold territory, which may mean selling momentum is weakening. A reclaim of the $76,400–$76,700 EMA cluster could open the path higher, while a break below $72,000 would increase downside risk toward $70,000.

Two Risks, One Catalyst

The setup entering June is binary. Strong ISM PMI data Monday would give bulls the macro ammunition they lack right now. Bitwise European research head Andre Dragosch argued that if Bitcoin continues to track growth and risk appetite, it needs to reprice higher from current levels.

The downside risk is equally clear. Bitcoin spot ETFs closed May with $2.30 billion in net outflows, the largest monthly outflow of 2026 and the steepest since November 2025, reversing two consecutive months of positive flows. Institutions appear to be derisking faster than price weakness alone would justify.

June's historical median return for Bitcoin is positive. Whether ETF sellers or seasonal buyers control the next move depends on what the labor-market data says on Monday morning.