Donald Trump promises $5,000 to every American adult if the Republicans win both the House and the Senate in the midterm elections. Anthony Pompliano already sees this as fuel for bitcoin, go
Donald Trump promises $5,000 to every American adult if the Republicans win both the House and the Senate in the midterm elections. Anthony Pompliano already sees this as fuel for bitcoin, gold, and land. The market, however, barely applauded: BTC barely reacted after the announcement. Behind this very political promise hides a bill exceeding $1.2 trillion, with a much less spectacular question: who will pay?
In Dallas, Trump, the president enriched by cryptos, did not just promise a check. He attached a condition: the Republicans must retain control of both chambers of Congress. The White House then named the operation “Trump Dividend,” comparing the mechanism to a business that redistributes part of its profits to its shareholders.
The analogy quickly found its limits in public debate. Republican representative Chip Roy asked how Washington would fund the measure. Bob Good, former chairman of the Freedom Caucus, called it a socialist device intended to buy votes. Joe Lonsdale, a Republican donor and co-founder of Palantir, also opposed the idea.
Legal questions also accompany the promise since the announced payment explicitly depends on the electoral outcome. CNBC reminds that federal legislation prohibits offering money to encourage someone to vote or vote for a candidate.
For now, no check is ready to be sent. The project would require Congressional approval and its criteria remain vague. JD Vance notably mentioned payments aimed at the middle class, while Trump spoke of every American adult.
At $5,000 for approximately 245 million American adults, the bill would exceed $1.2 trillion. A slightly broader estimate by the Tax Foundation, based on 250 million recipients, raises the cost to $1.25 trillion.
This is a big piece for federal finances already under pressure. The US debt has exceeded $40 trillion and budget forecasts show high deficits. Financing the dividend through new borrowings would further increase the government’s funding needs.
Inflation complicates the story. Injecting money does not mean every dollar will be immediately spent: some households might save, pay off debts, or invest. Only a part would quickly return to the economy.
The Tax Foundation nevertheless warns that a program financed by the deficit could push interest rates and inflationary pressures higher.
A dividend payment of this magnitude financed by the deficit would signal to markets that the United States is not serious about restoring its public finances. It could further raise interest rates and intensify inflationary pressures.
For bitcoin, this discussion matters: Pompliano builds his scenario precisely around more abundant money against assets whose supply remains constrained.
JD Vance suggests a possibility: tariffs. New tariffs bring more revenue to Washington and the Trump administration wants to present these revenues as a possible source for the dividend.
The problem lies in two numbers: $125 billion versus about $1.25 trillion.
The Tax Foundation estimates that new tariffs could generate about $125 billion in net revenue in 2027 if the policies remain in place. That would cover about one-tenth of a universal $5,000 payment. At this rate, almost ten years of revenue would be needed to finance a single distribution.
The mechanism has another subtlety. Tariffs are levied on imports. Their cost can then be, wholly or partially, reflected in prices borne by businesses and consumers. Increasing tariffs to finance a check could indirectly recapture part of the purchasing power that the very check seeks to provide.
Revenues do not represent an immobile jackpot either. The Tax Foundation notes that revenues have recently decreased, even turning negative some months, when the government refunded tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court.
The word “dividend” sounds pleasant. The arithmetic, however, demands a few more lines of calculation.
Let us now imagine that Congress gives its green light. The check arrives. What becomes of it?
Part could be used for consumption, another part for saving or debt reduction. Financial markets could also capture a fraction of this windfall. This is where bitcoin truly enters the story.
The experience of payments distributed during the pandemic supports this hypothesis without proving it. In April 2020, Brian Armstrong showed an increase of $1,200 deposits on Coinbase, the same amount as the first stimulus check. Binance US observed a similar phenomenon. Yet, it is impossible to establish that all these deposits came directly from the aid or that they were subsequently used to buy cryptos.
Your 1st cryptos with CoinbaseThis link uses an affiliate program.The bond market would rather look at the other side of the balance sheet. If the program increases public borrowing, more debt would have to be absorbed by investors, adding a risk of further pressure on yields.
Gold would have its own argument: concerns related to deficits, inflation, and purchasing power can increase interest in reserve assets. Bitcoin partly plays on this same string, with a much more generous volatility.
Thus, the same check could support consumption, worry bonds, and feed interest in rare assets. Nothing, however, obliges these movements to occur simultaneously.
Anthony Pompliano does not bother with a multi-layered model. For the head of Procap Financial, more distributed money simply means more potential for certain assets.
Trump announced yesterday that he would distribute $5,000 stimulus checks. The more money he distributes, the more bitcoin, gold, and land will rise.
Anthony Pompliano, X
The phrase travels well on social networks. For now, the market gives a duller response. After the announcement, bitcoin was still trading around $78,000, without immediate enthusiasm.
Pompliano mainly reasons about what could happen if the payments became reality. Between Trump’s speech and the arrival of $5,000 in American bank accounts, several doors remain closed: Republican victory, Congressional vote, definition of beneficiaries, and especially funding.
The investor also bets on the final destination of the money. Nothing guarantees that the beneficiaries would buy assets. Even less that they would massively choose bitcoin.
The promise therefore creates a positive narrative for rare assets. It does not yet create the flows that would allow it to be verified.
Pompliano sees massive money distribution as a possible accelerator for bitcoin. CryptoQuant looks at another thermometer: the price. Its scenario requires a close above $81,700, the level of the 365-day moving average, to confirm a new bull market. Between Trump’s monetary narrative and this technical validation, BTC still has to gain several thousand dollars. The check can feed the story; the chart demands proof.
