Bitcoin's current chart looks a lot like the base that formed before its 400% rally last cycle, according to analyst Frank Cappelleri. Speaking on CNBC on Wednesday, the CappThesis founder sa
Bitcoin's current chart looks a lot like the base that formed before its 400% rally last cycle, according to analyst Frank Cappelleri.
Speaking on CNBC on Wednesday, the CappThesis founder said he isn't calling for a repeat move of that size, but sees a similar foundation building toward fresh highs.
Cappelleri compared Bitcoin's roughly 54% drop this cycle with the nearly 70% decline seen between 2022 and 2023.
"This also looks like a bullish pattern to me," he said. He pointed out that the earlier slide eventually gave way to a sharp breakout once momentum returned.
Related: Bitcoin at risk after U.S. midterms? Analyst flags a $73,000 dip
He was careful to separate the comparison from a price target. "Bitcoin can really rally. It's a 400 percent gain," he said, before adding he isn't calling for that outcome again.
“I'm not calling for that, but I am calling for a very similar foundation to be leveraged and potentially get back to new highs again, maybe in early 2022,” he told CNBC.
He described looking for "a very similar foundation" that could push Bitcoin past its old record, possibly in early 2027, while noting the token has historically respected technical signals on both the way down and up.
Not every signal points one way. Analyst Ali Charts has noted Bitcoin fell after each of the last four US midterm elections, with declines between 27% and 72%. It is a reminder that November remains a wildcard.
In a five-part thread on X on Tuesday, the analyst laid out a pattern of post-midterm declines going back to 2010 and named $73,000 as the level to watch if history repeats.
The analyst pointed to Bitcoin's performance following the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms, when the token fell 72%, 65%, 52% and 27%, respectively.
He was careful to note that the elections did not necessarily cause the drops, but called the pattern worth watching as Nov. 3 approaches.
