CryptoQuant analysts say Bitcoin may have already set its October low. Exchange reserves are falling, whales are holding, and apparent demand has returned to near-neutral levels. Bitcoin trad
CryptoQuant analysts say Bitcoin may have already set its October low. Exchange reserves are falling, whales are holding, and apparent demand has returned to near-neutral levels. Bitcoin trades around $83,400 today, with US inflation data due.
The analysis comes from XWIN Research Japan, a CryptoQuant contributor, and describes onchain conditions as “cautious optimism.” It rests on three charts.
The first is exchange reserves. Bitcoin held on exchanges fell from 2.726 million BTC on Sept. 20 to 2.68 million, a 1.7% drop. Fewer coins on exchanges usually means less immediate selling pressure.
The second is whale holdings. Large investors still hold more than 3 million BTC combined. They did not sell when the price fell from $87,000 on Oct. 2 to near $80,000 on Oct. 8.
The third is apparent demand, which compares newly mined coins with changes in dormant supply. It has been negative all year, apart from a brief positive stretch in late August. It has now recovered to near-neutral levels.
XWIN adds a condition. A bottom needs sustained ETF inflows, stronger US spot buying, and continued demand recovery. None of those has been confirmed yet.
Bitcoin began 2026 at $87,570, after peaking near $126,000 in October 2025. The decline that followed ended on Feb. 5, when BTC fell to $60,000 and sentiment hit its lowest level since the Luna collapse.
Bitcoin then traded in a $60,000 to $80,000 range for months. In late August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared the bear market over. A composite profitability indicator had turned positive for the first time since October 2025.
Not everyone agreed. Analysts warned that thin demand and heavy liquidity above the price could stall the recovery.
Momentum improved anyway. Bitcoin gained more than 40% in the third quarter, its best Q3 since 2017. On Oct. 5 it posted its highest weekly close since January, at $86,532, but failed to reclaim the $87,570 yearly open.
October is historically one of Bitcoin’s stronger months. CoinGlass data shows an average gain of 18.7% since 2013. Only three of those Octobers ended red, and the worst was a 13% loss in 2014.
An 18.7% gain from here would put Bitcoin just under $100,000. That is an average, not a forecast, and the macro backdrop is a poor match for it.
CryptoQuant also found that Bitcoin held up better than usual through the first three days of October. Those days have historically averaged a 0.66% decline.
The pressure comes mainly from bonds and the dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.34% in early October, and the 30-year hit 5.69%. Those are the highest levels since 2002.
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25% in September. Odds of another October hike swung from 70% to 18% in a week. Many analysts still expect a December hike.
The dollar is also rising. The US dollar index reached 102.57 on Tuesday, its highest since April 2025 and up 5.5% since Sept. 9. Darkfost, another CryptoQuant contributor, says the combination limits market liquidity and keeps institutions cautious.
Equities add another risk. South Korea’s KOSPI index lost 7.4% over two days on fears about AI spending and Chinese competition. US stocks avoided a copycat sell-off.
CryptoQuant’s bullish case also relies on easing rate expectations and a calmer political climate after the US midterm elections on Nov. 3. The first depends on today’s CPI report, due on Oct. 14. A hot reading could revive hike expectations and push yields higher.
Bitcoin is stuck below $84,000, where order-book liquidity acts as resistance. Analyst Rekt Capital sees $82,500 as key support. Losing it would risk a return to the $60,000 to $80,000 range.
A move above $86,700 would open the way toward $93,700. Bitcoin’s yearly open at $87,570 is the level that would turn 2026 positive.
The bullish case is real but narrow. Falling reserves and steady whale holdings show that holders are not rushing out. Apparent demand has stopped worsening.
The bearish case is broader. Demand has not turned positive, ETF inflows have cooled, and bond yields sit at 24-year highs. A strong dollar and rising oil add to the pressure.
XWIN says Uptober need not mean uninterrupted gains. Its point is that a correction can lay the groundwork for the next advance. The next test is whether apparent demand turns positive and whether Bitcoin holds $82,500 through the CPI release.
