Bitcoin posted its best weekly close since January, around 86530 dollars, before failing once again below the 87000 dollar zone. The rise in US bond yields and the drop in buying pressure are
Bitcoin posted its best weekly close since January, around 86530 dollars, before failing once again below the 87000 dollar zone. The rise in US bond yields and the drop in buying pressure are currently preventing the market from crossing its annual opening price.
Bitcoin closed the week around 86532 dollars on Bitstamp, its highest weekly level since late January. It then approached 87000 dollars early Monday in the Asian session before falling back to around 86000 dollars.
Your 1st cryptos with BitpandaThis link uses an affiliate program.This attempt marks the fourth failure observed since September 21 in the same area. Several technical levels now frame the market :
The annual opening price represents an important psychological resistance. A sustained break would allow Bitcoin to erase its decline since the start of the year. Conversely, another failure could extend consolidation between 82500 and 87000 dollars.
“Bitcoin remains stuck between key support at 82500 dollars and resistance near 86700 dollars”, summarizes analyst Rekt Capital. This range must give way before a new short-term trend can establish.
On-chain data shows a moderation in buying pressure since the recovery began in mid-September. The dominance of active buyers is decreasing, while long-term holders continue to take profits around current levels.
“This behavior reflects a moderation of aggressive bullish momentum, without signaling an immediate trend reversal or structural exhaustion,” indicates Glassnode. This nuance remains important: buyers are slowing, but data does not yet confirm the beginning of a deep correction.
Bitcoin also retains most of its September gains despite continued high profit-taking. Sellers have not succeeded in forcing a sustained return below 84000 dollars, which maintains the recovery structure.
Derivatives markets show, however, a strong concentration of liquidity around 83700 dollars and the annual level of 87570 dollars. These areas can attract price when leveraged positions are liquidated.
A quick move above 87000 dollars could force short sellers to buy back their positions. But a drop toward 83700 dollars would produce the opposite mechanism by weakening the most exposed bullish positions.
The rebound in US Treasury yields accompanied the rejection below 87000 dollars. The ten-year rate remains close to its highest levels since 2002, after a brief easing caused by disappointing employment figures.
High yields increase the appeal of bonds compared to Bitcoin, which pays neither interest nor dividends. They also support the dollar, which can weigh on risky assets priced in the US currency.
The employment report had temporarily supported the market. The US created only 29000 jobs in September, compared to about 90000 expected. These figures reduced expectations for a new Fed rate hike in October.
The favorable reaction did not last. Investors remain concerned about inflation and the bond market’s ability to absorb new US debt issuances. A ten-year auction scheduled this week will provide new indication on demand.
The release on October 7 of the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting represents the next major event. Investors will seek details on the rate path and the level the central bank considers neutral.
“The highly unstable bond market makes upcoming US data and Fed communication particularly important,”say Deutsche Bank analysts. According to them, these minutes will carry more weight than usual due to the recent rise in yields.
The US inflation for September will then be published on October 14. A figure above expectations could revive the risk of monetary tightening and keep Bitcoin below 87570 dollars. Lower inflation would ease this pressure without guaranteeing a breakout.
The weekly close therefore confirms market improvement, but does not yet validate a sustained recovery. Bitcoin must now turn the 87000 dollar zone into support while maintaining 82500 dollars during any potential pullback.
