Bitcoin faces macro pressure as elevated U.S. bond yields tighten liquidity and reduce appetite for risk assets. Long-term Treasury yields near 4.5%–5% offer competitive returns, limiting cap
Bitcoin is navigating one of its toughest macro environments since its creation, according to analysts Darkfost and Ali Charts. Darkfost said elevated U.S. bond yields and constrained liquidity are weighing on risk assets, while Ali Charts reported that the Coinbase Premium remains negative, pointing to muted demand from U.S. institutional investors at current price levels.
https://twitter.com/alicharts/status/2066022318393225238?s=20According to Darkfost, Bitcoin now faces the most challenging bond market conditions in its history. While policy rates and the U.S. Dollar Index have been higher before, he noted that markets currently assign a 60% probability to another rate hike before year-end.
As a result, the cost of money remains elevated. Consequently, liquidity conditions remain tight across financial markets. Darkfost stated that investors lack the confidence needed to increase exposure to higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
That backdrop has coincided with pressure on Bitcoin. According to the analyst, previous increases in bond yields often aligned with weaker conditions for BTC and slower market momentum.
Looking deeper into the bond market, Darkfost highlighted long-term Treasury yields as a key factor. He pointed to the U.S. 10-year and 30-year yields, which continue fluctuating between 4.5% and 5%.
According to the analyst, those levels place markets near a pivot point. At the same time, returns from government debt have become increasingly competitive when compared with risk assets.
As yields remain elevated, investors may find less incentive to seek additional risk. However, Darkfost said clearer economic visibility could eventually encourage investors back into debt markets, which could push yields lower over time.
While macro conditions remain challenging, Ali Charts highlighted another data point affecting Bitcoin. According to the analyst, the Coinbase Premium remains below zero, indicating weaker spot demand from U.S.-based institutions.
The metric measures the price difference between Coinbase Pro and global exchanges. Ali Charts said the continued discount suggests American institutional investors are either remaining on the sidelines or distributing holdings at current levels.
Notably, the analyst added that previous recoveries in the Coinbase Premium often coincided with renewed institutional accumulation. For now, however, the indicator continues to remain in negative territory as Bitcoin trades against a challenging macro backdrop.
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