Bitcoin trades near $62,850 on Thursday, caught between a short-term bounce and a broken longer-term chart. Friday's 8:00 AM UTC Deribit options expiry, worth $1.4 billion, adds pressure to a
Bitcoin trades near $62,850 on Thursday, caught between a short-term bounce and a broken longer-term chart. Friday's 8:00 AM UTC Deribit options expiry, worth $1.4 billion, adds pressure to an already tense week. Traders are watching whether $62,000 holds as support or gives way.
The setup looks tight. Call options up to $62,500 total $137 million in value, while puts above $61,000 add up to $121 million. A push above $63,500 before expiry would widen the bulls' advantage to $190 million. Bears keep a smaller $100 million edge below $61,000, giving them less reason to press without a fresh catalyst.
Bitcoin opened July trading near $58,000, then climbed back above $61,000 within days. By July 8, price had reached $63,318 before slipping again as fresh headlines hit the market. The path since has been choppy, not directional.
The main driver has been geopolitics. A ceasefire between the US and Iran had briefly lifted sentiment, pushing Bitcoin past $63,000 on comments from Trump suggesting a deal was near. That relief proved short-lived. On July 8, Trump's remarks reigniting conflict concerns coincided with renewed US strikes on Iranian military sites, and both stocks and Bitcoin sold off as oil prices jumped.
Adding to the pressure, Strategy reportedly sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin during an internal overhaul, feeding uncertainty about corporate holders. None of this created a clean crash, but it kept traders defensive.
Behind the daily price swings sits a steadier concern: the 10-year Treasury yield climbing toward 4.6%. Rising yields reflect investor worry about US government debt growth and the possibility of further monetary expansion to head off a recession. Higher yields make bonds more attractive relative to risk assets like Bitcoin and equities.
This has kept Bitcoin range-bound even as the Nasdaq-100 sits only 4% below its all-time high. Capital has instead flowed into AI-linked stocks. Chipmaker SK Hynix drew an oversubscribed US listing this week, and shares in Arm Holdings, AMD, and Micron all posted gains of 7% to 10% on Thursday. That money is not reaching Bitcoin right now.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $85 million in net outflows on Wednesday, ending a brief three-day run of inflows. That figure alone does not confirm a shift away from institutional buying. Options markets tell a calmer story: demand for calls has outpaced puts over the past four days, meaning traders are positioning for less downside than the headlines suggest.
Bitcoin's Fear and Greed Index sits at 22, in the "extreme fear" zone, even as the coin holds above its 20-day moving average near $62,632. That gap between technical positioning and sentiment is common after sharp pullbacks and does not by itself predict direction.
The broader picture remains weak. Bitcoin sits well below its 50-day average near $65,449 and far below its 200-day average around $75,736, the level tied to its previous highs. Getting back above $65,000 would require more than a calm options expiry. It would need a real shift in the macro backdrop.
A cooling in the Iran conflict would likely help. Lower oil prices would ease inflation worries and could pull money out of bonds and into risk assets, Bitcoin included. The opposite is also true: any escalation would send capital back toward Treasurys and away from crypto.
The AI sector's strength cuts both ways for Bitcoin. It shows investors remain willing to take risk, which is a positive backdrop. But it also means capital chasing AI stocks isn't available for Bitcoin, at least for now.
The most likely outcome heading into Friday's expiry is a limited move in either direction. Options positioning suggests $62,000 holds as support for now, with a push through $63,500 offering short-term relief rather than a trend change. A larger move up would need Treasury yields to ease. A larger move down would need the Iran situation to worsen materially from here.
