Bitcoin(BTC) traded near $77,600 Monday early morning, about $4,000 below the $81,700 close CryptoQuant says would confirm a new bull market. Key Points: Bitcoin traded near $77,600, about $4
Bitcoin(BTC) traded near $77,600 Monday early morning, about $4,000 below the $81,700 close CryptoQuant says would confirm a new bull market.
Key Points:
- Bitcoin traded near $77,600, about $4,000 below CryptoQuant’s $81,700 bull-market confirmation level.
- Whale inflows and a negative Coinbase Premium contrasted with leveraged retail buying.
- Resistance clusters between $77,100 and $80,200, with lower support near $70,000 and $62,000 to $65,000.
Bitcoin remains below CryptoQuant’s confirmation line after a two-week rally, while whale activity, leveraged retail buying and weak U.S. institutional demand complicate the breakout case. A CryptoQuant Quicktake put the Exchange Whale Ratio at 0.93 during one hourly reading, a level the firm flags as an alert because it measures how much exchange inflow comes from the largest wallets.
The short window does not establish a trend. Retail traders moved the other way, with the Fear and Greed Index at 66 and the taker buy/sell ratio at 1.12, indicating aggressive leveraged buying.
The Coinbase Premium was negative, meaning Bitcoin traded more cheaply on the main U.S. exchange than on offshore venues and suggesting American institutional demand was not driving the move. CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain warned that price momentum was already exhausted at level 20 while the FEI Score stood at 99.53%, conditions he said could precede a long squeeze.
“With Price Momentum already exhausted at level 20 and the FEI Score locked in a zone of absolute noise (99.53%), the stage is set for a Long Squeeze,” GugaOnChain said. A long squeeze would force leveraged bulls to sell as positions unwind, potentially adding downward pressure while whales are already sending coins toward exchanges.
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CryptoQuant’s Sept. 11 report placed the nearest resistance between $77,100 and $80,200, where long-term holders released as much as 539,000 BTC this year. That supply overlaps with fresh whale selling. CryptoQuant analyst Moreno said the upper band marks an area where trader profit-taking has historically appeared.
A close above $81,700, the average closing price of the past year, would confirm a new bull market under CryptoQuant’s framework, while further resistance sits at $83,600 and $88,700. The threshold remains unbroken.
If Bitcoin retreats, CryptoQuant sees support near $70,000 and again between $62,000 and $65,000, where holders accumulated roughly 476,000 BTC this year.
Those zones could become relevant if leveraged longs unwind before buyers absorb the overhead supply.
CryptoQuant had already identified a weekly close above $81,700 as its bull-market confirmation condition in August, and Bitcoin has approached that level again this month without completing the breakout. The latest rally therefore returns the market to the same unresolved test.
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