Key Insights Bitcoin price approaches a potential breakout as analysts identify $83,300 as a key resistance level. Analysts target $90,000 and potentially $100,000, although selling pressure
Bitcoin price traded near $82,000 on Oct. 18 as several market analysts identified a potential breakout setup. However, resistance above $83,000 and weak underlying spot demand kept the recovery uncertain.
CoinMarketCap data showed Bitcoin trading below $83,300, a threshold closely watched by technical analyst Merlijn The Trader. CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Japan separately reported uneven accumulation across large holders. Together, the readings presented a market approaching a decision point without clear buying confirmation.
Merlijn The Trader wrote on X that Bitcoin continued to form lower lows, although successive declines appeared smaller. He said the Bitcoin price could reach $90,000 if buyers reclaimed $83,300. Traders still lacked evidence that the threshold had become support. An intraday move above that point without continued demand could reverse quickly.
BTC/USD price chart. Source: X
Analyst CW pointed to a narrowing convergence pattern whose lower boundary had attracted three tests. The structure suggested an approaching directional move, but the pattern did not establish its direction. CW did not identify a confirmed breakout or a target measured from the convergence. A downside break could weigh on the BTC price and increase attention on nearby support.’
CoinGecko data showed the Bitcoin price closing Oct. 17 near $81,408, below both analysts’ breakout thresholds. Its Oct. 4 close near $86,490 illustrated the subsequent retreat. Traders, therefore, faced an initial recovery hurdle before assessing higher targets. Neither analyst provided evidence that a sustained break had occurred.
CW separately described rising cumulative volume delta, an indicator tracking the balance of aggressive buying and selling. He also said large buyers had returned while sellers maintained a wall near $87,000. Yet the Bitcoin price would still have to absorb those sell orders before climbing. Actual order-book absorption would matter more than a single positive delta reading.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: X
Mister Crypto highlighted the weekly Gaussian Channel, placing its middle area near $83,500. He argued that a retreat toward its $72,500 lower band could establish another higher low. His longer-range scenario then allowed for a rebound above $100,000, provided buyers defended that support. The channel tracks past volatility; its bands cannot establish when buyers might return.
The Bitcoin price faces several barriers before that projection becomes relevant. A recovery above $83,300 would bring $83,500 into focus, followed by CW’s $87,000 resistance area. Merlijn’s $90,000 target and Mister Crypto’s $100,000 scenario remain contingent on those levels giving way.
CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Japan offered a less optimistic interpretation of the demand picture. The researcher said exchange reserves increased from roughly 2.67 million BTC in early October to 2.68 million.
Although reserves remained low against January, the recent increase challenged claims of continuously shrinking exchange supply. For the Bitcoin price, that meant potential supply pressure had not disappeared.
Bitcoin exchange reserve. Source: CryptoQuant
XWIN Japan also found that a 30-day spot demand measure briefly approached zero before turning negative again. Positive perpetual futures demand supported the broader reading, but derivatives activity could not replace sustained spot purchases.
A rebound in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could still reflect leveraged positioning rather than stronger spot demand. Transfers into exchanges, meanwhile, could reflect custody movements rather than confirmed selling.
These differences matter for the Bitcoin price because technical buying signals do not necessarily represent durable investment demand. CW’s cumulative volume delta measures trading activity, while CryptoQuant’s demand series captures a different market window. Neither indicator alone confirms a lasting reversal.
Ted, an analyst posting as Ted Pillows, said Bitcoin dominance had reached its highest level since May. CoinMarketCap’s market dashboard placed Bitcoin’s share at around 60% on Oct. 18. That reading indicated a larger relative market capitalization, rather than proof of fresh capital entering Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s market share can rise while the Bitcoin price falls, provided smaller cryptocurrencies decline faster.
Source: X
CryptoQuant’s XWIN Japan also found divergent behavior among major holders. Wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC remained net accumulators over 60 days, although buying lagged late September. The 1,000-to-10,000-BTC cohort saw net holdings declines narrow toward zero.
Holders above 10,000 BTC still recorded net holding declines. The 60-day measure also captures September activity and transfers between holder groups.
Michaël van de Poppe argued that Bitcoin had swept recent lows and looked stronger on longer timeframes. Yet the Bitcoin price still lacked confirmation from sustained spot demand or broad whale accumulation. Without broader spot participation, the proposed $90,000 rally remains a conditional chart scenario.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets involve substantial volatility and potential capital losses. Investors should conduct independent research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
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