Bitcoin is struggling below $77,000 on U.S. midterm election day, but history gives bulls an interesting reason to look beyond the immediate weakness. Crypto analyst Ash Crypto pointed out th
Bitcoin is struggling below $77,000 on U.S. midterm election day, but history gives bulls an interesting reason to look beyond the immediate weakness.
Crypto analyst Ash Crypto pointed out that Bitcoin delivered positive returns during the 12 months following each of the previous three U.S. midterm elections.
His chart shows gains of 24.5% after 2014, 44.9% after 2018 and 92.3% after 2022.
The historical numbers are remarkably close to the actual data.
Bitcoin closed around $330.49 on November 4, 2014, the day of that year’s midterm election. Exactly one year later, BTC closed near $411.56, a gain of approximately 24.5%.
The pattern repeated in 2018.
Bitcoin traded around $6,461 on November 6, 2018 before reaching roughly $9,361 one year later. That works out to approximately 44.9%.
The largest move followed the 2022 election. BTC closed near $18,542 on November 8, 2022 and traded around $35,694 one year later, an increase of roughly 92.5%.
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) November 3, 2026
US midterms are today and it is bullish for Bitcoin in the long term. History shows BTC has always pumped in the 12 months following the last 3 elections. 2014: +24.5% 2018: +44.9% 2022: +92.3% And this election matters a lot for crypto. The CLARITY Act is already stalled in the Senate, and if Democrats win, the chances of approval would go down even more. Not only that, but a Democrat win could even push Trump to launch fresh attacks on Iran, which will result in high oil prices and inflation. But this will all concern the markets in the short term. Once the uncertainty around the election and war is over, liquidity will start rotating into crypto, sending our bags to new highs.
Three observations do not create a reliable statistical rule, but the consistency is still interesting.
Bitcoin is currently around $76,700, down roughly 2% as markets wait for the November 3 election results. Technology-stock weakness and the aftermath of the Binance hack are also weighing on risk assets.
This election could also influence U.S. crypto regulation.
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act failed to advance in the Senate on September 15 after a 49-50 cloture vote. The legislation had gone through more than a year of bipartisan negotiations and would establish a broader federal framework for digital-asset markets.
Ash Crypto argues that the composition of Congress after the election could therefore affect the bill’s future.
That is a reasonable issue to watch, although the exact path of any legislation will depend on the new Congress, negotiations between lawmakers and regulators, and possible changes to the bill itself.
His additional claim that a particular election outcome could lead to fresh U.S. military action against Iran is much more speculative and should not be treated as part of the historical Bitcoin signal.
Read also: ChatGPT Predicts XRP and Bitcoin Prices in 2027 After the Binance Hack
Not necessarily.
The chart has one obvious limitation: each post-midterm period occurred during a completely different stage of Bitcoin’s own market cycle.
The 2014 election came near the latter stages of a brutal bear market. The 2018 election occurred shortly before Bitcoin’s cycle bottom. And November 2022 coincided almost exactly with the FTX collapse and the eventual low of that bear market.
That may be more important than the elections themselves.
In other words, midterms could simply have happened to arrive near periods when Bitcoin was already deeply depressed and approaching favorable points in its broader cycle.
The current setup has similarities.
BTC is around $76,700 after a difficult 2026, sentiment has deteriorated, and the market is still dealing with the Binance hack. But none of that guarantees the 2014, 2018 and 2022 pattern repeats.
Still, the chart gives Bitcoin investors an interesting historical tendency to monitor.
BTC is 3-for-3 on positive 12-month returns following the last three U.S. midterms.
Now the 2026 election will test that pattern for a fourth time.
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The post Bitcoin Price History Sends an Interesting Signal After the 2026 Midterms! appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.
