Bitcoin is trading near $80,100 on Monday, flat on the day, after slipping below its 50-day moving average as traders brace for this week’s Federal Reserve decision. Binance’s BTC/USDT daily
Bitcoin is trading near $80,100 on Monday, flat on the day, after slipping below its 50-day moving average as traders brace for this week’s Federal Reserve decision.
Binance’s BTC/USDT daily chart on TradingView puts the price about 8% below its recent swing high near $87,400.
What we know
Bitcoin trades below its 50-day SMA.
Futures price a 90.6% chance of a hold.
Range ceiling sits at $84,000-$85,000.
RSI near 41.5, below its signal line.
What we don’t
Whether $80,000 survives a daily close.
What the Fed signals for December.
How the midterms reshape crypto policy.
Which side the range breaks.
Bitcoin’s failure to hold momentum above its $84,000-$85,000 ceiling set off a pullback that has now carried it below its 50-day SMA near $81,850, which has started to flatten. That average served as the launchpad for the entire multi-month advance, so losing it leaves bulls without their main support.
The average now works as resistance, sitting just above the 0.236 Fibonacci level near $81,600. A recovery would need a confirmed daily close back above it and the $82,500 pivot. Until then, rallies may meet selling from buyers who entered higher.
RSI sits near 41.5, below its signal line near 47.6, which gives sellers mild short-term control. It remains well clear of oversold territory, though, which points to steady selling rather than capitulation.
Below $80,000, support is layered rather than concentrated in one place. The 0.382 Fib near $78,000 comes first, followed by the 0.5 Fib and the rising 100-day SMA around $75,000-$75,650. That $78,000-$75,000 shelf is where the correction would be expected to stop if the larger uptrend is intact. Beneath it, the 200-day SMA and the 0.618 Fib around $72,150-$73,030 mark the zone where a correction would start to look like a change in trend.
$62.7K $72.2-73.0K $75.1-75.6K $78.0K $80.1K $81.6-81.8K $87.4K Cycle base 0.618 Fib + 200-day 0.5 Fib + 100-day 0.382 Fib Now 0.236 Fib + 50-day Swing highFibonacci levels measured from the $62,712 base to the $87,426 swing high.
Between that ceiling and the $80,000 floor, Bitcoin has a band of roughly 6% to work with, and it now sits at the bottom of it as three major events arrive within eight days.
Wed, Oct 28Fed decision, 2:00 PM ET Fri, Oct 30~$11B in BTC options expire Tue, Nov 3US midterm electionsFriday’s expiry matters because contracts of that size can add volatility in the days around settlement, as traders close or roll positions near key strike prices.
The CME FedWatch tool puts the odds of a hold at 90.6%, which would keep the target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, against a 9.4% chance of a quarter-point hike. A month ago, a hike was the favorite at 64.2%.
With a hold almost fully priced, the reaction will likely hinge on what Chair Kevin Warsh signals about December, where markets still see another hike as the likelier outcome. His move away from forward guidance leaves investors with little to go on before he speaks.
Six days after the Fed, Americans vote in the midterm elections. Bitcoin fell in each of the last three midterm years and rallied the year after, a history that has traders asking whether the pattern will repeat in 2026.
This cycle also carries a direct policy angle. Crypto legislation has stalled in Congress, and crypto-related companies had spent about $189 million on the 2026 election cycle by June 30, according to a Public Citizen analysis cited by Reuters. Control of the relevant committees could shape that agenda well into 2027.
The case for patience rests on structure: the longer averages are still rising beneath price, and none of the layered supports below $80,000 has been tested yet. The case for caution rests on timing, with Bitcoin pressed against its floor just as the Fed, a large options expiry and the midterms land within a week of each other.
Two Daily Closes to Watch This Week
Scenarios, not forecasts. Bitcoin sits on $80,000, with the 50-day SMA and 0.236 Fib about 2% overhead.
Close above $82,500
A daily close back above the 50-day SMA and the $82,500 pivot could neutralize the breakdown and reopen the top of the range near $84,100, with the $87,400 swing high beyond it.
or
Close below $80,000
A confirmed daily close under the psychological level could extend the correction toward the 0.382 Fib and then the 100-day SMA.
Bigger picture: Even a test of the $78,000-$75,000 shelf would keep this a correction. The trend question only opens below the 200-day SMA.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency prices are volatile.`
The post Bitcoin Price Tests $80K With the Fed and Midterms Ahead appeared first on Coindoo.
