Bitcoin’s recovery continues, with BTC now trading above $80,500 after adding another 3% over the past 24 hours. The move extends an impressive turnaround from the recent lows near $60,000 an
Bitcoin’s recovery continues, with BTC now trading above $80,500 after adding another 3% over the past 24 hours. The move extends an impressive turnaround from the recent lows near $60,000 and has quickly changed the mood across the crypto market.
Only weeks ago, discussions across crypto social media centered on how much further Bitcoin could fall. Now, the conversation has flipped. Bull-market calls are returning, traders who waited for lower prices are reconsidering their positions, and the idea that Bitcoin already formed its cycle bottom is getting traction.
Still, not everyone is convinced.
Some closely followed crypto analysts believe investors may be getting comfortable with the bullish narrative too early. CryptoCon continues to argue that the bear market may not be finished, and his latest chart uses market sentiment itself as one reason to remain cautious.
Another analyst, Bobby, approaches the situation differently. His long-term chart makes the case that Bitcoin never entered a conventional cycle-ending bear market in the first place. Instead, he believes the entire decline could eventually be remembered as an unusually large and complicated bear trap.
The two interpretations are different, but both raise an important point: Bitcoin breaking back above $80,000 does not automatically settle the larger cycle debate.
CryptoCon’s latest “Bitcoin Calendar of the Masses” is less of a traditional technical chart and more of a study of investor psychology.
He maps Bitcoin’s price since late 2022 against narratives that became popular at different stages of the market.
Near the 2022 bottom, his chart lists sentiment such as “Recession Coming, 10-12k next.” Bitcoin instead recovered.
During another pullback in 2023, pessimistic calls returned with narratives including “Altcoins Are Dead, Recession Coming.” That period was again followed by higher Bitcoin prices.
Source: X/@CryptoCon_As BTC climbed through 2024, sentiment moved in the opposite direction. Around one consolidation, CryptoCon labels the prevailing narrative “ETFs are Here, No More Corrections.” Bitcoin subsequently faced another meaningful pullback.
Near the late-2024 highs, optimism became even stronger, represented on his chart by “Strategic Reserve Coming, Supercycle Inbound.” Once again, a correction followed.
That’s the basic idea behind CryptoCon’s chart: the crowd tends to become most confident after a move has already developed.
He now believes that may be happening again.
With Bitcoin recovering above $80,000, CryptoCon has labeled the latest period “Bull Market is Back.” In his view, that captures the increasingly popular belief that the recent low was the final cycle bottom.
CryptoCon remains skeptical.
He noted that calling for the bear market to continue, with a possible final cycle bottom later this year, has become an increasingly unpopular position. He is not arguing that popular opinion must automatically be wrong. Instead, his point is that consensus sentiment has repeatedly worked as a useful counter-indicator during this Bitcoin cycle.
That distinction could be important.
The chart itself does not prove that Bitcoin must fall again. Sentiment can remain bullish for a long time during a genuine bull market. It does, however, warn against treating the recent recovery as definitive evidence that all downside risk has disappeared.
CryptoCon’s broader cycle thesis leaves open a much more bearish possibility.
Despite BTC’s recovery above $80,000, he still considers a scenario where the true cycle bottom arrives toward the end of 2026.
His chart illustrates this with a future green box positioned roughly in the $40,000-$50,000 region, accompanied by an imagined sentiment extreme along the lines of Bitcoin never recovering.
That should not be confused with a precise $40,000 price prediction. The graphic is illustrating the type of capitulation CryptoCon believes could accompany a final cycle low.
It would also require an enormous reversal from current prices.
At $80,500, a decline to $50,000 would represent a drop of about 38%. Reaching $40,000 would mean losing roughly half of Bitcoin’s current value.
The higher Bitcoin climbs without breaking its improving market structure, the more evidence such a bearish thesis needs.
For now, however, CryptoCon has not abandoned it simply because sentiment has changed.
Read also: We Asked 3 AI Models If Bitcoin Price Can Reach $100,000 by September
Bobby’s chart reaches a very different conclusion.
His analysis uses Bitcoin’s monthly timeframe, stretching back to 2017, and places the current market inside a broad long-term rising channel.
Rather than interpreting the 2025-2026 decline as a completed bull market followed by a traditional crypto winter, Bobby believes Bitcoin was mid-cycle.
That’s a major distinction.
Source: X/@Bobby_1111888If he is correct, the fall from the highs toward $60,000 was not the beginning of a multi-year deterioration. It was a huge correction inside a larger secular uptrend.
His chart provides some support for that interpretation.
Bitcoin’s decline took price from the upper portion of the long-term channel toward its lower region. The recent low also developed around a major rising moving average on the monthly chart, an area that has played an important role during previous long-term market structures.
Bitcoin price has since bounced and the current monthly candle has returned toward $80,000.
Momentum indicators underneath the price chart are also attempting to turn from depressed readings. The RSI-like momentum panel has bounced from around the lower half of its range, and the faster oscillator below it is curling upward from deeply compressed levels.
The MACD-style indicator remains less convincing. Momentum is still negative there, meaning Bobby’s bullish interpretation is not fully confirmed by every indicator on the chart.
That makes the next several monthly closes important.
Bobby described the setup in unusually strong terms, saying the chart tells him two things: Bitcoin was mid-cycle, and the decline will eventually be remembered as one of the largest and most complex bear traps in crypto history.
His use of the term bear trap is important.
A bear trap occurs when falling prices convince traders that a larger breakdown is underway, only for price to reverse and leave bearish traders positioned in the wrong direction.
Bitcoin’s recent behavior certainly has some characteristics consistent with that idea.
BTC fell toward $60,000, bearish expectations expanded, and calls for much lower prices became common. Bitcoin then reversed rapidly and has now recovered above $80,000.
If BTC continues climbing and eventually recovers the major highs from which the decline began, Bobby’s bear-trap argument would become considerably stronger.
But there is still a difference between a powerful recovery and confirmation of another long-term expansion phase.
Bitcoin remains well below the previous cycle highs visible around $120,000 on his chart. The long-term moving averages are also still processing months of weaker price action.
Bobby’s argument therefore depends heavily on what happens next.
What’s particularly interesting is that CryptoCon and Bobby are not actually making the same bear-trap argument.
CryptoCon remains cautious about the current rally. His concern is that investors may once again be declaring victory too early. If his cycle framework remains valid, Bitcoin could eventually face another major decline and establish a deeper bottom later in 2026.
Bobby is considerably more bullish.
He believes the major trap may have already happened. Under his interpretation, the selloff convinced investors that a new bear market had arrived when Bitcoin was actually undergoing a large mid-cycle correction.
So the disagreement can be reduced to one question:
Was the move toward $60,000 the bottom, or was it only an intermediate low before another major decline?
Bitcoin’s price action over the coming months should provide a much clearer answer.
Right now, the market itself is giving bulls the stronger argument.
Bitcoin has recovered from around $60,000 to above $80,500, meaning BTC has gained roughly one-third from its recent lows. More importantly, the recovery has not disappeared after one or two strong sessions. Bitcoin price continues to trade higher and has rebuilt levels that looked vulnerable only recently.
Fighting that momentum purely because the crowd has become bullish would be risky.
CryptoCon’s sentiment analysis is still useful. Markets regularly punish investors when a narrative becomes universally accepted, and crypto is particularly good at producing violent reversals after traders become overconfident. But sentiment alone is not enough to establish that Bitcoin must revisit $50,000 or $40,000.
Bobby’s thesis currently fits the improving price action better. Bitcoin found buyers around a major long-term area and has produced a powerful recovery. If BTC keeps establishing higher lows and reclaiming major resistance levels, describing the decline as a mid-cycle correction or bear trap becomes increasingly reasonable.
That doesn’t mean the bull market is confirmed either.
Bitcoin is still recovering from a substantial decline, and the previous major highs remain far above the current price. A move back toward $70,000 or even lower would not be unusual after such a fast rebound.
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The post Bitcoin Price Tops $80K, But Analysts Warn This Could Be a Massive Bear Trap appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.
