After several sessions marked by losses, the cryptocurrency market is regaining some ground. Bitcoin is rising after touching its lowest level since early September, but this recovery is stil
After several sessions marked by losses, the cryptocurrency market is regaining some ground. Bitcoin is rising after touching its lowest level since early September, but this recovery is still not enough to reassure investors. Despite a rise in prices on Friday, expectations remain cautious for the end of October. Between massive ETF outflows, neutral indicators, and risks of further declines, the market is now seeking a clear direction for the next sessions.
On Friday, the bitcoin price traded around 82,837 dollars, recording a daily increase of 1.38%. The day before, its price had fallen to 80,427 dollars, its lowest level since early September. This return above 82,000 dollars marks a recovery after several difficult sessions. However, the market has not yet erased the losses accumulated during the week.
At the same time, the total capitalization of cryptocurrencies increased by 2.1%, reaching 2.89 trillion dollars on Friday. This rise remains limited compared to the more than 3 trillion recorded a week earlier. At that time, bitcoin was approaching its annual high before sellers gradually took control again. The market is thus recovering part of its losses, without reaching its previous level.
Investor sentiment confirms this persistent caution. The fear and greed index fell to 56, compared to 71 on October 2. It is now in the neutral zone, after a period marked by stronger optimism. This evolution shows that operators remain hesitant to strengthen their positions despite the price rebound.
Cryptosteel: The best devices to stay secureThis link uses an affiliate program.Movements recorded on Wall Street also illustrate this tension. On Wednesday, Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of 484.9 million dollars, their worst day since June 25. On Thursday, withdrawals continued, with an additional 244 million dollars according to the Decrypt ETF tracker. These successive outflows reflect a marked withdrawal of financial flows towards these investment products.
Bitcoin ETFs register two consecutive days of net outflows, while cumulative inflows reach 57.5 billion dollars. Source: Decrypt.
For bitcoin, these withdrawals are an important element to monitor during the recovery. Investors must particularly determine if buyers will return enough to support prices. For now, available data does not confirm a sustainable return of demand. Caution, therefore, remains warranted, as markets assess the risks of a new decline before the end of October.
Prediction markets reflect these mixed expectations. On Myriad, the probability of BTC returning to 80,000 dollars or less in October reaches 67%. Participants also estimate a 40% chance of a drop to 75,000 dollars, versus 24% for 72,500 dollars. Meanwhile, the probability of a weekly close above 87,500 dollars stands at 49%. These estimates illustrate the uncertainty surrounding the next market move.
On Myriad, the probabilities of a Bitcoin decline reach 40% for a price at 75,000 dollars and 24% for 72,500 dollars in October 2026.
Technical indicators provide mixed signals. On the daily chart, the average directional index, or ADX, reaches 37.9, above the 25 threshold associated with a marked trend. Directional lines favor buyers, as DI+ remains above DI-. However, on the four-hour chart, the price remains below the 50-period exponential moving average. This discrepancy suggests that the rebound does not yet confirm a short-term trend reversal.
The relative strength index, or RSI, stands at 51.2, a level considered neutral. It indicates that buying pressure has eased after an overbought phase. In a statement attributed to Decrypt, Luke Deans from Bitwise Europe considers the 83,000 dollar zone a first important test for the rebound. It combines the average cost of ETFs with a previously high price level, which increases its relevance for traders.
A sustained return above 83,000 dollars could activate the resistance at 84,433 dollars. Then, the September high, located at 87,354.33 dollars, would constitute a major threshold to overcome with a daily close. Conversely, a new failure could revive expectations of a decline towards 80,000 dollars or even lower levels.
In the coming days, the evolution of flows from ETFs and price reactions around these levels will be decisive. Bitcoin will need to confirm its rebound to reduce fears of a new pullback. Without a sustained recovery in buying, selling pressure could persist until the end of October. Upcoming movements will therefore better measure the strength of this rebound.
