TLDR: Ali Martinez identified Bitcoin drawdowns of 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27% across four midterm cycles since 2010. Bitcoin’s past election-cycle losses coincided with Mt. Gox’s fall, a Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s midterm election ‘curse’ has resurfaced ahead of November 3, after analyst Ali Martinez documented four declines surrounding U.S. votes. The comparison renewed crash concerns, although it provides no evidence that elections caused the losses.
In an October 24 post, Martinez reported drawdowns of 72% in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018, and 27% in 2022. His figures describe declines around election cycles rather than annual returns, a distinction essential to the pattern.
BITCOIN MIDTERM ELECTION CURSE
Look at what happened to $BTC around the previous four US midterm election cycles:
• 2010: Bitcoin fell 72%.• 2014: Bitcoin fell 65%.• 2018: Bitcoin fell 52%.• 2022: Bitcoin fell 27%.
Four consecutive cycles of significant downside. https://t.co/arfhewEg74pic.twitter.com/WOIBBYz18C
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 24, 2026
Meanwhile, BTC entered the countdown above its July low but near support. The price analysis involves both historical returns and institutional positioning, not simply the election calendar.
The BTC drawdowns span different market conditions. Binance Research calculated annual losses of 56% in 2014, 73% in 2018, and 64% in 2022. It excluded 2010 because trading liquidity was negligible.
Quarterly figures illustrate the mismatch. Bitcoin surged 391% in the final quarter of 2010, then declined 16.70% in 2014, 42.16% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022. Consequently, BTC price analysis cannot treat drawdowns and calendar-period returns as evidence of an election effect.
Other events shaped the downturns. The 2014 bear market coincided with Mt. Gox’s collapse, while a contentious Bitcoin Cash split intensified losses in 2018. In 2022, higher interest rates weakened speculative assets, and FTX filed for bankruptcy on November 11, three days after voting.
Market bottoms also varied. BTC reached lows approximately 71 days after the 2014 election, 38 days after 2018’s vote, and 13 days after 2022’s. That variation limits any price analysis claiming a fixed election-driven timetable.
This cycle differed. Bitcoin rose roughly 40% from its July 1 low near $57,850 to around $81,455 on October 22. Glassnode identified demand between $80,000 and $81,500, close to acquisition costs for U.S. spot exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries. Its broader valuation reference stood near $77,600.
For BTC, price analysis places resistance between $85,000 and $87,500. Martinez separately identified $73,000 as a downside reference tied to short-term holders’ cost basis. Another price analysis reference, Glassnode’s short-term holder realized price, stood around $75,800.
Neither figure establishes a confirmed crash target. Institutional flows added pressure. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $635.6 million in net outflows on October 22. BTC also faces the Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision before election day.
For now, BTC price analysis centers on whether buyers defend nearby demand. The Bitcoin election pattern remains a historical comparison, while BTC price analysis cannot isolate voting as the cause of previous losses.
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