Bitcoin’s Spring Rally Was a Fakeout, Says Benjamin Cowen as June Weakness Returns

What To Know

• Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin’s spring rebound matched historical fakeouts precisely.
• Bitcoin failed above key resistance as correction risks remained.
• Cowen expects cycle bottom formation between October and November.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen believes Bitcoin’s spring recovery was a temporary rally instead of beginning of a new bullish phase. According to Cowen, current market conditions continue to follow the historical four-year cycle structure that has shaped previous Bitcoin corrections. Cowen pointed to Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak at $126,200 as evidence supporting his thesis. He noted that the top formed 1,162 days after the cycle bottom, closely matching the timing seen in earlier market cycles.

The analyst explained that Bitcoin declined 10.1% in January and 14.8% in February before staging a rebound during March and April. However, he argued that the recovery failed to produce a meaningful trend reversal because Bitcoin could not establish support above its 200-day simple moving average.

Also Read: Strategy Sells 32 Bitcoin in Rare Move as BTC Price Slips

Historical Pattern Suggests More Downside Ahead

According to Cowen, the recent rebound fits the profile of a classic dead cat bounce. He said similar rallies typically last between 15 and 25 weeks before the broader correction resumes. Moreover, Cowen challenged the bullish interpretation of Bitcoin’s historical June performance. While average June returns stand at 6.91%, he stated that a small number of exceptional years significantly skew the data.

He highlighted strong gains recorded in 2011 and 2019, arguing that those periods distort the broader historical picture. Consequently, June has often produced losses when Bitcoin entered a correction following a major cycle peak. Trading volumes have weakened in recent months, while broader sentiment remains subdued. As a result, Cowen believes Bitcoin could revisit and potentially fall below the February low near $60,000.

Plenty of narratives to justify why Bitcoin is dropping right now, but it often drops into June of midterm years.

I know the four year cycle view is mocked frequently, but it has been far more accurate than every other theory put out there. pic.twitter.com/IamZAlBKb7

— Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) June 1, 2026

The analyst also noted that U.S. midterm election years have historically coincided with weaker cryptocurrency performance. Therefore, he expects downside pressure to remain present throughout the summer months.

October Could Mark the End of the Correction

Cowen’s cyclical return model suggests that September may remain challenging for Bitcoin holders. Nevertheless, he believes the final phase of the correction could conclude between October and November 2026. According to the analyst, that period has historically marked the point where downside momentum becomes exhausted before a new long-term uptrend emerges.

Cowen maintains that Bitcoin’s recent recovery does not invalidate the broader correction. Instead, he believes the market continues to follow a familiar four-year cycle pattern that could keep prices under pressure in the coming months.

Also Read: ECB Official Warns Stablecoins Could Cement Dollar Dominance Across Europe

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