Bitcoin is having a rough week, and traders are running low on patience. BTC futures trade near $67,050, down 2.46% in 24 hours, after the coin lost the $70,000 level. The drop from the Septe
Bitcoin is having a rough week, and traders are running low on patience. BTC futures trade near $67,050, down 2.46% in 24 hours, after the coin lost the $70,000 level.
The drop from the September 21 high of $87,374 to a low of $66,397 adds up to 24%. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 12, which signals Extreme Fear. Market cap stands at $1.35 trillion.
So where could BTC go from here? The next few days may decide it.
Pressure is coming from several sides at once.
Spot ETFs recorded $185 million in net outflows on November 13, according to SoSoValue. That was the seventh straight trading day of exits. BlackRock's IBIT led with $144 million, and Fidelity's FBTC followed with $41.92 million.
Futures data looks weak, too. Trading volume fell 31.25% to $69.86 billion. Open interest slipped 4.10% to $45.86 billion. Spot volume is only $6.60 billion, so futures trade 10.6 times more. Funding is slightly positive at 0.0013%. Most taker buy/sell ratios sit below 1, which points to stronger selling.
Over the last 24 hours, liquidations hit $279.36 million. Longs made up $240.46 million. Shorts were only $38.90 million.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows a rate hike is almost fully priced in for the December 9 meeting. The odds are 88.5% for a 25 basis point move to 4.00% to 4.25%.
Another 11.5% is on for a move to 4.25% to 4.50%. That would be a 50 basis point jump from today's 3.75% to 4.00%.
A week ago, the 4.00% to 4.25% outcome stood at 76.3%. A month ago, traders gave 9.1% odds to no change. Today that number is zero.
Higher rates often weigh on risk assets, and Bitcoin has not been spared.
Santiment says Binance open interest fell to roughly $8.3 billion, the lowest since August 18. The slide toward $68K set off another wave of long liquidations. The Binance hack two weeks ago started this leverage unwind.
Less leverage means fewer forced sellers waiting below the market. If BTC steadies while open interest stays low, a rebound would lean on fresh spot demand. That is usually a healthier base.
A quick pop back above $70K to $72K this weekend could bring leverage back fast, though.
BTC could try to find its footing near $66,300 to $66,500, the recent intraday low area. Here are the zones traders are watching.
Level
Role
What to Watch
$80,000
Upside target
Possible if the 200-day EMA turns into support
$76,172
200-day EMA
TD Sequential buy signal could aim here if buyers confirm
$75,000
Resistance
Previous resistance zone
$72,000 to $73,000
Resistance
Buyers need to reclaim this area
$70,000
Stabilization level
First sign of a recovery
$66,300 to $66,500
Support
Recent intraday low area
$65,000
Support
Key psychological level
$62,500 to $63,000
Deeper support
Needs extra selling pressure
Bullish path: The TD Sequential is flashing a buy on the daily chart. If buyers confirm it and BTC reclaims $70,000, a run toward the 200-day EMA near $76,172 looks possible. Holding that level as support could open the way to $80,000.
Bearish path: If $66,300 breaks, BTC could slide to $66,000, then $65,000. A rate hike, Extreme Fear, and ETF outflows would add fuel. Below that, $62,500 to $63,000 comes into focus.
Middle path: Choppy trading between $66,000 and $70,000 is also possible while buyers try to build a stronger support base. None of these outcomes is certain.
Peter Schiff, a well-known BTC critic, says the collapse is gathering steam. He expects momentum to pick up if the coin breaks $50K.
In his view, that could lead to a trip to the 2022 low below $16.5K, possibly before year-end. He added that it would be curtains for MSTR.
That is a bold call, and it sits far from today's levels. BTC would need to fall about 25% just to reach $50K. Nothing in the current data guarantees that path. It is one view in a market full of them.
For now, Bitcoin sits at a crossroads. Above $70,000, the mood could turn calmer. Below $66,000, $65,000 comes into play.
The December 9 Fed meeting is the next big date.
This article is for information only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Crypto assets are volatile and carry a high risk of loss. Price levels and targets mentioned here are not guarantees. Always do your own research and speak with a licensed financial advisor before making any decision. Coingabbar does not hold responsibility for any losses.
