Bitcoin whipsawed around the $64,000 level on Wednesday as multiple risk factors collided—weakness in Asian equities, fresh tensions around the US-Iran situation, and an approaching Federal R
Bitcoin whipsawed around the $64,000 level on Wednesday as multiple risk factors collided—weakness in Asian equities, fresh tensions around the US-Iran situation, and an approaching Federal Reserve decision that traders see as a near-term volatility trigger.
According to TradingView, BTC/USD struggled to extend a local rebound after the Wall Street open and was still wrestling with downside pressure following a move to 11-day lows near $62,700 the prior day. The broader selloff atmosphere was reinforced by additional stress in risk assets, including equity weakness tied to the semiconductor and AI complex.
Wednesday’s drawdown pressure extended beyond crypto. Trading activity reflected a broader risk-off posture that began with a selloff in Asian chip stocks, then carried into US markets. Cointelegraph previously reported that the cost to insure AI debt had reached new highs amid an Asian semiconductor pullback, framing the backdrop for heightened credit and equity sensitivity in the region.
Alongside the equity-driven drag, geopolitical nerves resurfaced. US President Donald Trump said the US would “be hitting them hard,” referring to tit-for-tat strikes linked to the US-Iran conflict, in an interview with Fox News. The immediate market implication was a rise in energy prices: WTI crude was up 7.6% and Brent crude was up 5.4%, according to the figures cited in the original reporting.
Oil price jumps can matter for crypto indirectly. They often feed into expectations for future inflation, and inflation expectations feed into interest-rate expectations. With the Federal Reserve preparing to deliver its next interest-rate decision, traders are likely to treat energy moves as one more input to a complex rate-volatility equation.
Markets are waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) outcome, which will include a statement and a press conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, according to the details described in the source. The reporting noted Warsh has provided less forward guidance than his predecessor, which increases the importance of any cues about the future path of policy.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool data referenced in the original piece, there was a 66.3% probability that current target levels of 3.5%-3.75% would remain unchanged. A 0.25% hike was priced with 33.7% odds.
The Kobeissi Letter also highlighted that opinions were divided on what the Fed would do. In the same vein, the source described the pricing environment as unusually split, implying that BTC could see sharper-than-usual moves if the outcome or language deviates from what traders expect.
Before the next macro catalyst, BTC price action appeared technically constrained. As described in the original reporting, Bitcoin traded broadly within a range bounded by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). This kind of “between-the-guides” behavior often happens when market participants remain cautious—waiting for confirmation from macro data while liquidity thins.
The source added that the range structure began in mid-July, with breakouts failing as price encountered liquidity zones on both sides. That context helps explain why the market has not decisively moved away from the $63,500 to $64,900 corridor.
CoinGlass data cited in the original article pointed to potential liquidation buildup on both ends of the current range, with notable clusters around $63,500 and $64,900. In practice, these zones can act like magnets during volatile sessions: if price pushes into one side, leveraged positions are forced out, which can accelerate the move and widen the range temporarily.
Even as liquidation risk builds, the source emphasized that trading activity remained subdued. Trading volumes were described as “conspicuously low,” with spot-market volume at its weakest level since July 2023.
K33 Research, in a bulletin referenced by the original report, attributed this to muted derivatives positioning and softer participation. The piece stated that CME open interest was near multi-year lows, perpetual futures open interest had stalled around 300,000 BTC, and average daily spot volume had fallen to about $2.2 billion for the month.
There’s also a behavioral angle to the current setup. The source noted that retail interest in both Bitcoin and the broader crypto market has been declining since the market’s October 2025 all-time highs, and that investors have increasingly directed attention toward AI stocks. When that rotational behavior persists, crypto can struggle to attract incremental spot demand—making BTC more sensitive to macro shocks and harder to sustain higher breakouts.
With the FOMC decision and press conference approaching, traders should watch whether the Fed’s communication shifts expectations for the rate path—especially given the inflation-sensitive impulse from oil—and whether BTC can hold its range boundaries or instead tests the liquidation clusters around $63,500 and $64,900. Until liquidity and participation improve, the next decisive move may arrive suddenly rather than gradually.
This article was originally published as Bitcoin stalls as split FOMC meets amid Iran-war oil shock (+8%) on Crypto Breaking News – your trusted source for crypto news, Bitcoin news, and blockchain updates.
