Bitcoin is trading near $81,610 today, up 2.32% in 24 hours. The market is waiting on the Federal Reserve. The FOMC rate decision lands at 2 PM ET. Kevin Warsh's press conference starts at 2:
Bitcoin is trading near $81,610 today, up 2.32% in 24 hours. The market is waiting on the Federal Reserve.
The FOMC rate decision lands at 2 PM ET. Kevin Warsh's press conference starts at 2:30 PM ET, and many traders see it as the bigger event.
Bitcoin is up 2.32% on the day. Here is a quick look at the market.
Metric
Value
Price
$81,610 (+2.32%)
Market cap
$1.63T
Circulating supply
20.10M BTC
Futures volume (24h)
$44.03B
Spot volume (24h)
$3.50B
Open interest
$54.56B
The two-day meeting runs October 27 to 28. The decision comes at 2 PM ET.
CME FedWatch shows a pause is likely. The current target range is 3.75% to 4.00%.
Outcome
Now
1 Day Ago
1 Week Ago
1 Month Ago
No change
90.6%
88.9%
84.5%
29.1%
Hike to 4.00%-4.25%
9.4%
11.1%
15.5%
70.9%
A pause looks mostly priced in. A month ago, a hike was the favorite.
CPI and PPI have both risen since the last meeting. That means inflation is getting worse, not better.
Bitcoin is down 4.2% for the month. CryptoQuant says the Coinbase Premium has not been positive on a single day. It is the most negative since June.
That points to US buyers sitting on the sidelines.
October is usually a strong month. This is now the second negative October in a row.
Year
October Return
2020
+27.6%
2021
+40.0%
2022
+5.5%
2023
+28.5%
2024
+10.9%
2025
-3.8%
2026 (to Oct 25)
-4.2%
Yes, at least on October 27. SoSoValue data shows $175.99 million in net inflows.
ETF Data
Value
Total daily net inflow
$175.99M
Cumulative net inflow
$57.47B
Total net assets
$103.94B (6.40% of market cap)
IBIT daily inflow
$151.46M
FBTC daily inflow
$24.54M
Some funds, including Grayscale's GBTC, still show cumulative outflows.
Arkham flagged whale bc1q9. It deposited 438.37 BTC ($35.38M) overnight.
The same wallet took out 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody 16 months ago. The average price was $105,271.
At $81,610, he is down over $15M and still holds $14.31M. A deposit can mean selling, but it does not prove it.
The 24-hour long/short ratio is 1.0488, a slight edge for longs. Short traders took the pain, though.
Liquidations
Total
Longs
Shorts
1 hour
$25.11M
$99.89K
$25.01M
24 hours
$56.10M
$4.60M
$51.51M
Open interest is flat at $54.57B.
CryptoQuant says a renewed rise in realized cap is a good sign. It still needs follow-through.
If it holds, it could mark the early stage of a healthier market structure, like in 2023.
BTC sits near the 20-day EMA, inside a descending channel. RSI is around 48, which is neutral.
Level
What It Marks
$87,400
Major resistance
83,500-84,000
Channel resistance
$81,716
20-day EMA
$80,763
50-day EMA
80,000-80,700
Key support zone
$77,700
100-day EMA
$76,400
200-day EMA
Range trading between $80,000 and $84,000 looks likely for now.
Here are the two cases traders are watching.
If Warsh Signals
Possible Reaction
More rate hikes
Markets could sell off hard
A rate pause
BTC could tap 82K-82.5K
At the last FOMC meeting, BTC bottomed that day and rose 16% in a week. One case is not a pattern, though.
Nobody knows how the speech will land. The $80,000 level is the one to watch.
This article is for information only. It is not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, and you can lose money. Do your own research before making any decision.
