Bitcoin is heading for a fourth straight weekly loss, and the pressure is building near a key support zone. BTC traded near $78,350 on Oct. 30, down about 2.2% on the day. The daily low touch
Bitcoin is heading for a fourth straight weekly loss, and the pressure is building near a key support zone.
BTC traded near $78,350 on Oct. 30, down about 2.2% on the day. The daily low touched $76,320 before buyers stepped in. Market cap sits near $1.57 trillion.
Billions in unusual transfers from Binance-labeled wallets set off hack fears around 5:52 p.m. ET. Binance said it is investigating a possible security issue and that user funds are safe.
Tether and Circle have frozen more than $2.3 billion in related stablecoins. Another 200 million USDT reportedly moved at 5:44 p.m. ET.
The news came right after the FOMC meeting. Markets mostly expect the Fed to hold rates, though a possible December hike is still in focus.
Earlier this week, BTC rose 1.36% from about $80,628 to $81,721, then reversed. In past FOMC meetings, the first-hour move was often under 1%. The real direction usually shows over the next 24 hours.
BTC broke below its descending channel and is now testing the 200-day EMA. The 100-day EMA sits just above it.
The RSI reads 37.87. That is weak, but not yet oversold.
Level
Price
Role
20-day EMA
$81,033
Resistance
50-day EMA
$80,546
Resistance
100-day EMA
$77,772
Near-term pivot
200-day EMA
$76,426
Key support
Daily low
$76,320
Recent bottom
As per CryptoQuant, Whales realized about $156 million in profit recently. That adds to possible selling pressure.
Their holdings also fell by roughly 8,162 BTC in 24 hours. That is worth about $664 million.
The Coinbase Premium Index slid to around -0.17, one of its lowest readings since September. A negative number means BTC is cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance. It hints at weaker US demand.
Mood is sour too. The Fear & Greed Index reads 30, or Fear. It was 51 yesterday and 71 a month ago.
Trading activity jumped as prices fell. Longs bore most of the damage.
Metric (24h)
Reading
Futures volume
$112.63B (+105.46%)
Open interest
$54.28B (+1.42%)
Options volume
$9.53B (+128.57%)
Long/short ratio
0.9425
Total liquidations
$481.84M
Long liquidations
$405.49M
Short liquidations
$76.35M
A ratio below 1 points to slightly more shorts than longs. Still, long traders were squeezed the hardest.
Liquidation data shows short pain starting near $78,669 and long pain below $77,170. Each zone holds about $65.1M in estimated liquidations. A quick move either way could trigger a chain reaction.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold $104.27B in net assets, or 6.58% of market cap. They saw a net inflow of $17.07M on Oct. 29.
Cumulative net inflows stand at $57.62B. Daily trading value was $2.11B.
Fund
Daily Flow
BlackRock IBIT
+$12.80M
Fidelity FBTC
+$10.53M
Bitwise BITB
+$8.76M
Grayscale GBTC
-$15.35M
The inflow is small. It shows steady interest, not a rush to buy the dip.
The 200-day EMA at $76.4K is the line to watch. It also lines up with old channel support.
If buyers defend it, a bounce toward $80.5K to $81K is possible. After that, $83K to $84K could come into view. An RSI near oversold levels may help a short-term recovery.
If BTC loses the 200-day EMA and cannot reclaim it, the next zone sits at $74K to $72K. That risk is real, given the news flow.
Scenario
Trigger
Possible Zone
Bullish
Holds $76.4K
$80.5K to $81K, then $83K to $84K
Bearish
Loses $76.4K
$74K to $72K
Volume and open interest are rising. That often means bigger swings are close. Traders may want to wait for a clear move before adding new positions.
Nothing here is certain. Hack news can change fast, and so can the market.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Cryptocurrency is volatile and carries a high risk of loss. Price levels and forecasts are not guaranteed. Always do your own research and speak with a licensed financial advisor before investing.
