Bitcoin tests $80,000 as retail wallets sell and larger holders accumulate during its 31% rally from Aug. 1. Wallets holding 0.1–1 BTC recorded an Accumulation Trend Score of -0.982, signalin
Bitcoin is up 31% as retail wallets sell during the rally, while larger holders continue buying BTC. Ali Charts said wallets holding 0.1–1 BTC posted an Accumulation Trend Score of -0.982 since Aug. 1. Meanwhile, Darkfost identified about $79,600 as a capital-weighted cost basis, placing $80,000 at the center of Bitcoin’s current test.
According to Ali Charts, Bitcoin climbed from $62,229 to $81,500 since Aug. 1. During that move, wallets holding between 0.1 and 1 BTC recorded an Accumulation Trend Score of -0.982. The data shows selling among that wallet group throughout the rally.
At the same time, wallets holding 100 or more BTC have accumulated Bitcoin. Ali Charts described the activity as larger players buying BTC sold by retail holders. However, the figures provided do not state the amount accumulated by those larger wallets.
Darkfost said several technical and on-chain levels have converged around $80,000 as Bitcoin attempts to break out of the bear market. He also said realized price has become less relevant because of the amount of illiquid supply.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization has continued to increase, reaching $1.75 trillion at the cycle’s peak. Darkfost said this change requires a different approach when adjusting the realized price.
He explained that BTC bought more than 10 years ago now represents a smaller share of capitalization. That supply is considered illiquid compared with BTC bought more recently.
Darkfost adjusted realized price using a capital factor tied to invested capital. That calculation produced a cost basis of about $79,600. He identified this level as the area where average invested capital reaches neutrality.
That places the $80,000 level close to the adjusted cost basis. Bitcoin is currently struggling around this zone, according to Darkfost. He said a daily close above $80,000, followed by a weekly close above it, would return a large portion of capital to profit.
