Bitcoin fell below $81,000 on Friday, October 23, as Brent crude reached $116 per barrel. Cointelegraph described it as the highest Brent price since March 19. The price dipped to $80,988 bef
Bitcoin fell below $81,000 on Friday, October 23, as Brent crude reached $116 per barrel. Cointelegraph described it as the highest Brent price since March 19. The price dipped to $80,988 before recovering to about $81,600.
Bitcoin then lost more ground over the weekend. On Saturday, a wave of forced long selling pushed it to a weekly low of $79,107, its first trade below $80,000 since October 15. The Block reported that crypto longs lost $404 million in four hours. Bitcoin recovered above $80,000 within a couple of hours and traded near $80,850 on Sunday morning.
US stocks opened lower on Friday. Worries about AI-sector spending weighed on equities, and oil rose on fears that Washington could renew strikes on Iran around the midterm elections. WTI crude passed $102, its highest since September 16.
The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq 0.2% and the Dow 1.4%. The 10-year Treasury yield stayed below 5% after touching 4.939% on Thursday, its lowest since September 23.
Economist Robin Brooks pointed to an unusual gap between oil prices and physical supply. Persian Gulf flows were near pre-war levels, and Saudi exports exceeded their pre-war average. He read the price as a large risk premium, which means it could fall quickly if tensions ease.
Analyst Keith Alan of Material Indicators watched the 50-day simple moving average at $81,781. Bitcoin had slipped under it, and bulls needed a daily close back above. He expected a retest of $78,000 to $80,000 if they failed.
Bitcoin did not reclaim the line. It still sat roughly $950 below the 50-day average on Sunday. The $80,000 to $81,500 zone also matters because it holds the average cost basis of spot Bitcoin ETF investors.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen added a second marker. He said a weekly close below $83,000 on October 25 would strengthen his bearish view for the rest of 2026. That level was already out of reach.
The link between oil and Bitcoin traces back to the US-Iran war. The US and Israel struck Iran over a weekend in late February and early March. Bitcoin fell to $66,700 on March 2 as Brent jumped more than 6% to $77.50.
Iran then moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, the route for a large share of the world’s seaborne oil. Brent reached $119 on March 19 after attacks on Gulf energy facilities. Bitcoin dropped below $70,000 that day, and analysts warned of $200 oil if the strait stayed shut.
Relief came in waves. On March 25, Bitcoin steadied above $71,000 after the US drafted a 15-point peace plan and oil fell under $100. Brent slid to about $94 on April 8 on easing fears.
The relief did not last. Brent hit $126 intraday on April 30 after reports that President Trump was briefed on military options. Bitcoin fell toward $75,000 that day. Analysts said then that Bitcoin would struggle above $80,000 until Brent fell below $100.
Bitcoin has since climbed above that $80,000 mark. It traded near $85,500 in early October and set a weekly high of $84,856 on Wednesday, October 21, after a short squeeze. That rally faded within days, and the price now sits about 28% below its level a year ago, near $111,700.
Oil is only part of the weakness. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $635 million on Friday alone. Outflows reached $909.7 million over two weeks, which wiped out October’s gains in the funds. Falling ETF demand removes a steady buyer just as macro risks rise.
The bearish case is simple. Oil above $100 feeds inflation fears and keeps pressure on interest rates. Bitcoin has traded with tech stocks all week, so an AI-driven equity selloff hits it too. Weekly indicators lean bearish.
The bullish case rests on support. The $79,500 to $80,500 band has stopped declines several times, and Saturday’s dip closed back above it. Yields are easing, and the oil premium could unwind quickly if a US-Iran deal emerges. Bitcoin rose on peace headlines in March and April.
The Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday and Friday’s options expiry add event risk this week. Traders will watch whether Bitcoin reclaims $81,800 or breaks below $79,000. A drop under $79,000 would end the September-October range and expose the mid-$70,000s.
