The cryptocurrency market is approaching a new observation point, while traditional assets are holding up better. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, warns of
The cryptocurrency market is approaching a new observation point, while traditional assets are holding up better. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, warns of a possible inflection. According to him, the performance of bitcoin against U.S. Treasury bonds could weigh on several markets. The 80,000 dollar threshold notably draws his attention. A prolonged weakness below this level could exacerbate difficulties in the sector.
In a recent post on X, Mike McGlone described a potential turning point. He believes a retreat of crypto against Treasury securities could have widespread consequences. His analysis therefore goes beyond just the digital assets market. It also concerns the relationship between risky investments and U.S. public bonds.
To support his scenario, the analyst compares two exchange-traded funds. The first, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), tracks the price of bitcoin. The second, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), provides access to long-term U.S. bonds. This comparison allows observing their relative performances since the end of 2024.
As of October 30, the IBIT/TLT ratio was 81, according to McGlone. The analyst had set his baseline at 100 at the end of 2024. The crypto-linked fund thus shows a relative lag of about 19% against the bond fund. This result highlights the change in dynamics between these two asset categories.
Start your crypto adventure safely with MEXCThis link uses an affiliate program.The IBIT/TLT ratio has struggled to surpass 100 since the fourth quarter of 2025. This development extends the relative underperformance observed by McGlone. It occurs even as the bitcoin-dedicated fund experiences greater fluctuations. The gap between the two investments thus feeds the analyst’s concerns.
McGlone states that IBIT has volatility about four times higher than TLT. Despite these fluctuations, the bond fund maintains a relative advantage since the end of 2024. In other words, the more pronounced market movements have not led to better performance. The comparison thus highlights a persistent divergence.
The level of $80,000 is another milestone in this analysis. According to McGlone, a sustained weakness below this threshold could complicate the situation for cryptocurrencies. He links this risk to the underperformance against U.S. bonds. Thus, his warning relates to potential consequences for other asset classes.
McGlone also wonders whether the most favorable period for cryptocurrencies now belongs to the past. He recalls that 2024 marked an important year for the sector. The United States then saw the launch of spot ETFs linked to bitcoin. At the same time, Donald Trump shifted from a critical stance to a declared supporter of cryptocurrencies.
Since that period, however, the market has not managed to surpass traditional government bonds, according to the analyst. This contrast fuels his questioning of the strength of its long-term momentum. He presents this development as a signal to watch, not as a certainty. Relative performance remains at the core of his reasoning.
The future will depend notably on bitcoin’s ability to regain better momentum against public securities. If its weakness persists below $80,000, tensions could affect other assets. Conversely, an improvement in the IBIT/TLT ratio would change the current assessment. The evolution of this indicator will thus measure if BTC can reverse this trend.
