Bitcoin has come under heavy selling pressure, falling from $74,000 to $65,500 in just 48 hours. As the world’s largest cryptocurrency struggles to recover, traders on prediction markets are
Bitcoin has come under heavy selling pressure, falling from $74,000 to $65,500 in just 48 hours. As the world’s largest cryptocurrency struggles to recover, traders on prediction markets are increasingly betting that the decline isn’t over, with many expecting Bitcoin to retest its April low of $55,000 before year-end.
Here’s why BTC traders are so bearish on Bitcoin.
Traders on major prediction platforms are becoming less confident about Bitcoin’s near-term outlook.
On Kalshi, markets currently imply a 67% probability that Bitcoin falls below $55,000 this year. The odds of Bitcoin dropping below $50,000 have reached 49%, while traders assign a 30% chance of a decline under $40,000.
Well-known prediction market Polymarket users are expressing a similar view. Contracts on the platform show roughly a 67% probability that Bitcoin trades below $55,000 before year-end and better-than-even odds that prices fall below $50,000.
The bearish outlook reflects growing concerns that Bitcoin’s correction may not be over despite already losing significant ground from recent highs.
A major factor behind the pessimism is the ongoing wave of ETF outflows. According to Fairside, investors withdrew $2.5 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs during May. The selling accelerated at the start of June, with another $1 billion leaving funds in just the first two trading days.
BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest spot Bitcoin ETF holding more than $55 billion in Bitcoin, led June 2 outflows with $388.6 million. Total ETF outflows that day reached $519.1 million.
Bitcoin is also facing competition from one of Wall Street’s hottest themes, artificial intelligence. Over the next few years, three of the world’s biggest AI companies could eventually hit public markets:
• SpaceX — valued at roughly $1.8 trillion
• Anthropic — valued at around $965 billion
• OpenAI — valued at about $852 billion
Together, that’s more than $3.6 trillion in combined value and potentially $205 billion raised from public investors. And when institutions need liquidity, they look to the largest and most liquid markets, which is Bitcoin for now.
Another sign of growing caution is Bitcoin’s volatility index, BVIV, often referred to as the market’s fear gauge.
After remaining near yearly lows for almost two months, the index jumped nearly 20% as Bitcoin fell below $66,000. The move indicates traders are increasingly buying downside protection and preparing for further volatility.
At the same time, money does not appear to be leaving crypto entirely. Instead, some investors are moving into stablecoins such as USDT and USDC while waiting for a clearer market direction.
