TLDR: A weekly close above $82K and the 1W 50MA would strengthen the bullish case for Bitcoin, says Ash Crypto. The Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.75%-4%, but Warsh’s press conference cou
The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision Wednesday, October 28, at 2 p.m. ET. Markets expect rates to hold at 3.75% to 4%. Traders will watch Warsh’s press conference for any hint of a December rate hike.
Bitcoin options worth $11 billion also expire Friday, adding pressure to a crowded calendar. Oil sits at $117 a barrel amid US-Iran tensions, which adds another layer of uncertainty.
The week is packed. According to The Kobeissi Letter, new home sales arrive Tuesday. September PCE inflation and Q3 2026 GDP follow Thursday.
PCE inflation is projected near 3.6%. Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings Wednesday. Amazon and Intel report Thursday. Roughly 20% of S&P 500 companies also publish results this week, so earnings and macro data will land together.
Key Events This Week:
1. September New Home Sales data – Tuesday
2. October Fed Meeting and Rate Decision – Wednesday
3. Microsoft, $MSFT, and Alphabet, $GOOGL, Report Earnings – Wednesday
4. September PCE Inflation data – Thursday
5. US Q3 2026 GDP Data – Thursday
6.…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 25, 2026
A hold is the expected outcome, so the real signal sits elsewhere. Warsh’s press conference could show whether policymakers lean toward a December hike. Any such hint would matter for risk assets.
Oil adds pressure. At $117 a barrel, energy costs keep inflation risk in focus while US-Iran tensions persist.
That mix tests whether AI investment can offset inflation and geopolitical risk. Bitcoin sits in the middle of that test.
Crypto analyst Ash Crypto calls it a high-volatility week for the market. The analyst says Bitcoin has shown strength despite pressure across global markets.
Confirmation is still needed. A weekly close above $82,000 and the 1-week 50-period moving average would strengthen the bullish case. That moving average tracks the longer-term trend, so reclaiming it signals buyers are in control.
The PCE and GDP prints on October 29 could swing sentiment either way. Strong GDP growth with cooling inflation could lift Bitcoin and crypto, per Ash Crypto. Hotter inflation could delay rate cuts and pressure risk assets.
CRYPTO IS HEADING INTO A HIGH-VOLATILITY WEEK
Despite the pressure across global markets, Bitcoin has shown strength. But we still need confirmation.
A weekly close above $82K and the 1W 50MA would strengthen the bullish case and signal that bulls are in control.
Here's… pic.twitter.com/CqLGZd9Vup
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) October 25, 2026
The Fed is not the only central bank in play. On October 30, Japan reports unemployment data. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady.
A surprise hike would change that picture. It could strengthen the yen and trigger volatility across global markets. Crypto would likely feel the pressure.
Politics adds another layer. The Kobeissi Letter notes the Iran war continues to escalate. US midterm elections are only days away.
Ash Crypto adds a historical warning. Bitcoin has corrected after every midterm, the analyst says. That pattern is not a forecast, but it raises the stakes for this week’s close.
Options expiry compounds the risk. With $11 billion in Bitcoin options expiring Friday, positioning can shift quickly around the data. Expiry days can also amplify price swings as traders adjust their exposure.
Bitcoin has held up, but confirmation is missing. A weekly close above $82,000 would help bulls, while a hawkish Warsh or hot inflation could challenge that case.
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