Central Banks Still Expected to Buy 720 Tonnes of Gold in 2026 Despite Price Decline

Key takeaways

• Central bank gold demand forecast reaches 720 tonnes
• China and Poland continue accumulating gold reserves
• Rising Treasury yields pressure prices despite official buying

Central banks are still expected to purchase approximately 720 metric tonnes of gold in 2026, even as higher U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar weigh on precious-metal prices.

The forecast represents a roughly 15% decline from the previous year's buying but remains above levels typically recorded before 2022. It highlights the growing importance of official-sector demand as gold struggles to regain momentum following its recent correction.

Spot gold slipped 0.3% to approximately $4,158 per ounce on October 13, ahead of U.S. inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Central Bank Gold Purchases Could Reach 720 Tonnes

Despite the projected slowdown, central-bank demand remains an important component of the global gold market.

According to the World Gold Council, official institutions purchased an estimated 345 tonnes during the first half of 2026, including 289 tonnes in the second quarter alone.

That second-quarter figure represented a 62% increase from the same period in 2025, reversing an unusually weak first quarter affected by substantial selling from Turkey, Russia and Azerbaijan.

More recent official reserve data showed another 39 tonnes of reported net purchases in August, lifting publicly disclosed year-to-date buying to approximately 170 tonnes.

These figures cover different datasets: the World Gold Council's broader demand estimates include unreported activity, while monthly reserve statistics track publicly disclosed transactions.

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China remains one of the most consistent buyers, extending its gold accumulation streak to 23 consecutive months in September.

Its continued purchases have helped support gold prices, even as stronger bond yields have triggered repeated selling across precious-metal markets.

Poland has also expanded its reserves aggressively. By July, the country had accumulated approximately 90 tonnes during 2026, bringing its reported holdings to 640 tonnes against a longer-term target of 700 tonnes.

The broader shift reflects central banks' efforts to diversify reserve portfolios away from traditional government securities and reduce exposure to currency and geopolitical risks.

A June World Gold Council survey found that 89% of reserve managers expected global central-bank gold holdings to increase over the following 12 months.

Can Central Bank Demand Support Gold Prices Above $4,000?

Persistent official buying does not guarantee rising gold prices, particularly when investors can earn higher returns from government bonds.

The recent gold price decline illustrates how elevated Treasury yields and dollar strength can outweigh structural demand.

However, central banks operate with different objectives from short-term investors, often prioritizing financial resilience, reserve diversification and long-term purchasing-power protection.