CLARITY Act Approval Odds Hit Low as Senate Text Faces Delay

TLDR:

• The CLARITY Act revised text is now expected next week after a White House meeting failed to resolve the disputed ethics provisions.
• Polymarket approval odds briefly fell to a record 31% before recovering to 35%, compared with a 73% probability during May.
• Senate Democrats want stronger conflict-of-interest rules before providing the bipartisan votes needed to move the legislation forward.
• The New York House hearing supports the case for crypto regulation but does not advance the bill or alter its Senate voting timetable.

The CLARITY Act has suffered a fresh setback after lawmakers failed to release revised Senate text following a White House meeting. Industry sources now expect the document next week, extending uncertainty around the crypto market structure bill. Polymarket briefly priced the legislation’s 2026 approval odds near 31% before they recovered to 35% on Friday. 

The sharp fall from 73% in May reflects doubt that negotiators can settle the ethics dispute and secure enough Democratic votes. A House field hearing in New York may support the policy case, but it does not change the Senate timetable or advance the bill directly.

CLARITY Act Text Delay Deepens the Senate Ethics Standoff

President Donald Trump met Republican senators on Thursday to discuss the ethics provisions holding up the legislation. The meeting did not produce the promised updated draft. Journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that industry leaders now expect the text to slip into next week.

The @FinancialCmte will hold a field hearing at 10 AM ET in New York examining how the Clarity Act could unlock innovation. The hearing is informational and does not affect the Senate’s consideration of the bill.

Meanwhile, updated legislative text remains elusive following… pic.twitter.com/crMgbG1TVd

— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) July 17, 2026

The delay matters as Senate leaders have little time to build a bipartisan coalition before the August recess. The measure needs 60 votes to advance. That requirement leaves the bill dependent on Democratic senators seeking stronger conflict-of-interest rules.

Senator Ruben Gallego has described the Republican ethics language as too weak. Democrats want tighter restrictions covering the president, vice president, senior officials and members of Congress with crypto interests. Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure, which reported more than $1 billion in crypto-related gains, has intensified the dispute.

Senator Cory Booker has kept negotiations open but says the legislation requires a bipartisan pathway. Releasing text without Democratic support could harden opposition before negotiators settle the most contested language.

The legislation previously carried bipartisan momentum. The Senate Banking Committee advanced H.R. 3633 by a 15-9 vote on May 14. It was reported to the Senate on June 1 and placed on the legislative calendar as Calendar No. 423. No floor vote has been scheduled.

Approval Odds Fall as the Hearing Offers No Senate Fix

The House Financial Services Committee held its New York field hearing at 10 a.m. ET on Friday. The session examined how the CLARITY Act could support digital asset innovation and establish clearer federal oversight.

Witnesses included representatives from Nova Labs, Bullish, WisdomTree and Coin Center. Their testimony covered digital commodity rules, market infrastructure, consumer safeguards and protections for software developers. However, the hearing carried no authority over the Senate process.

Prediction markets reacted to the weaker timeline. Polymarket’s contract for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 traded near 31% during Friday’s session. It later showed 35%, compared with 73% on May 11 and about 47% in early June.

The market requires H.R. 3633 to pass both chambers and receive the president’s signature by December 31, 2026. A Senate vote alone would not settle the contract. Lawmakers would still need to resolve differences between the Senate amendment and the House-approved version.

The CLARITY Act would create a federal framework for digital commodities and define oversight roles for the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its rules could affect token issuers, exchanges, brokers, custodians, and non-custodial developers.

The delayed draft leaves compliance teams without final language on registration, disclosures, custody, developer liability, and ethics restrictions. Those details will determine whether Democrats rejoin the coalition that moved the legislation through committee in May.

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