TLDR TD Cowen puts the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this fall at just 25% The Senate plans a cloture vote on the bill at 2:15 p.m. ET on Sept. 15 Ethics and anti-money laundering disp
The CLARITY Act, a bill meant to set clear rules for crypto trading in the United States, is facing steep odds this fall. A new report from TD Cowen puts the chance of the bill becoming law at only 25%.
Analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote the note on Aug. 10. He said there is a 75% chance the bill fails to pass this fall. The report came just two days after Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a motion to move the bill forward.
The CLARITY Act would decide which federal agency oversees different types of crypto assets. Digital commodities would fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Investment contract assets would stay with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The bill already cleared the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 vote back in May. Seiberg wrote that the bill is not dead, but said the path forward is harder now.
TD Cowen laid out three ways the bill could fail. In the first, the Senate passes the initial procedural vote in September. Then talks break down over ethics and money laundering rules, and Democrats block the final vote.
In the second scenario, the Senate never holds the vote at all. Republicans may want to avoid a floor fight tied to President Trump’s crypto holdings.
In the third scenario, the first vote passes but nothing happens after that. No debate, no amendments, no further votes. One crypto executive has called this outcome a “walking dead” state for the bill.
Senators have argued for months over ethics rules and anti-money laundering requirements. Senator Cynthia Lummis released updated bill text on July 22 that combined work from two Senate committees.
Stablecoin yield is another open question. Stablecoins are digital coins built to hold a steady value. Lawmakers disagree over whether companies should be allowed to pay holders a return on them.
Betting markets share TD Cowen’s doubts. As of Aug. 9, traders put the odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 at 21%.
For the bill to pass, TD Cowen says the most likely path involves Democrats getting a vote on their ethics changes and losing it. Some Democrats could then support the bill after that vote, even though their amendment failed.
A less likely path involves Trump striking his own ethics deal with Democrats. That could free up enough votes to end debate. Seiberg said the bill could also pass later this year if Republicans hold both chambers of Congress, though he called that unlikely.
Despite the odds, the White House is not backing away. Patrick Witt, a top crypto policy adviser to Trump, said Tuesday that the administration will keep talking with Democrats “all the way up until the September vote.”
Witt added that the White House “can’t afford to wait forever” on the bill. Lawmakers return to Washington on Sept. 14. Republicans hold 53 seats and need at least seven Democrats or independents to back the vote for it to move forward.
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