TLDR; CLARITY Act odds have dropped below 40%, showing weaker confidence in passage before the end of 2026. Trump’s crypto disclosures added fresh ethics pressure as Senate lawmakers still de
CLARITY Act odds have slipped below 40%, adding fresh doubt to Washington’s crypto market-structure push. Prediction-market traders now show weaker confidence that the bill will become law in 2026. The shift follows President Donald Trump’s latest financial disclosure, which showed heavy crypto-linked income and renewed ethics criticism.
According to reports, Trump disclosed more than $1.4 billion from crypto ventures in 2025. The income included World Liberty Financial and meme coin revenue. The timing matters because the Senate still faces a tight calendar, unresolved amendments, and rising pressure before the August recess.
The CLARITY Act was designed to define how digital assets fit under U.S. financial law. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill in May with Republican support and two Democratic votes. The measure would clarify when crypto tokens are treated as securities, commodities, or another asset class. It also addresses stablecoin rewards, anti-money-laundering duties, DeFi rules, and tokenized securities.
Source: PolymarketThe latest filing has shifted attention from market structure to political risk. Trump reported almost $800 million from World Liberty Financial, a venture he co-founded with his sons. He reportedly earned $635 million from Trump meme coin sales. The White House denied conflict concerns and defended the administration’s crypto policy push.
Former Trump White House lawyer Ty Cobb sharply criticized the disclosures on CNN. Cobb described the situation as an unprecedented corruption concern. His comments are now feeding a wider ethics debate around crypto legislation. Senate Democrats have already raised concerns about officials profiting from digital-asset ventures.
That issue could make floor negotiations harder. Even lawmakers who support crypto rules may demand stronger guardrails before backing the bill. The result is a tougher path for the CLARITY Act as the Senate clock keeps shrinking.
Galaxy Research recently lowered its 2026 passage estimate to 50%, as reported. Earlier in June, Galaxy had already cut its forecast to 60% from 75%. Alex Thorn said the issue was mainly calendar pressure, not only bill substance. Galaxy noted that the bill still needs floor debate, amendments, Senate Agriculture reconciliation, and House action.
Additionally , former BlackRock digital-assets executive Joseph Chalom sees the July 4 target below 50%. He still expects the CLARITY Act to become law before year-end. However, he warned that regulatory rulemaking can be reversed more easily than legislation.
#CLARITYAct will it actually pass by July 4th?
BlackRock's Joseph Chalom just put the odds at sub-50% for that deadline, but stays optimistic it lands by year-end if not before August recess.
His sharper point: if the US stalls, Asia won't wait. He's been to Korea and Hong Kong… https://t.co/CPtRCCL8Nipic.twitter.com/fiLIRpT7To
— 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸XRP (@BankXRP) June 30, 2026
Chalom also pointed to Asia as a growing competitive risk. He said South Korea and Hong Kong are closely watching the U.S. process. Delays in Washington could push Asian governments to move faster with rival frameworks. That could weaken America’s bid to lead global crypto regulation.
For now, the CLARITY Act remains alive but more exposed to timing risk. The next signals are a merged Senate bill, a motion to proceed, and confirmed floor time. Without those steps in July, the debate could drift toward September.
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